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The Song Remains The Same

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 You may remember a look at how Penn State stacked up against Notre Dame through the eyes of the computer models.  And so to beat a dead horse give you all an update for Thursday's (nit) National Championship matchup:

School KenPom Rank KenPom Score Predicted W 
Baylor 29 .8918 64% (71-67)
Penn State 58 .8208 36% (67-71)

 
So Baylor is actually ranked a bit higher than Notre Dame, and Penn State's win last night jumped them ten spots to help close the gap. While there is still a large space between the two teams' KenPom number, he actually gives the Nittany Lions an 2% greater chance of winning tomorrow than he did last night.

I still think there is a major SOS issue with KenPom.  There has to be a floor for this kind of stuff, and I wouldn't care so much expect that it affects RPI in the same manor and has a negative impact on tournament selection (despite the lies the selection committee says on national TV).

School Sagarin Rank Sagarin PREDICTOR Expected Spread
Baylor 26 85.07 -3.7
Penn State 40 81.37 +3.7

 
Penn State jumped seven spots in Sagarin, although they've always been looked at a little better in his formula than KenPom's. Same can be said for Baylor, though, and the projected point spread is just one tenth off the one we saw for Tuesday's game.

Digging any further is really just a repeat of last week but it is interesting that Baylor, with two less wins than Penn State and not from the OMG#1SBE*, gets the same edge as Notre Dame.

*Oh Muy Guud Number One Seed Big East

This time we are lucky enough to have a line out and yep: Baylor favored by 4. Not only does in mirror the stats above, but also the Vegas line from last night. This time, though, the public appears to be a lot more evenly divided.

Other things you should know: