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Open Dread: Sorry, There's A Game Tonight.

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[The game's on ESPN2, not the Big Ten Network. You lose, America.]

If Penn State loses tonight, will they win any conference game this season? Seems like a stupid question to ask just five games into the conference schedule, you say? Well, smartypants, if you believe in Ken Pomeroy (and you should), tonight is Penn State's last, best chance to win a conference game this season. Yes, it's only January 21, and this is it*. KenPom puts PSU's victory chances at 74% tonight. Maybe he knows something about a Bloomington, Indiana H1N1 outbreak that the rest of us don't.


After tonight's game, here are Penn State's next nine games and their projected chances of winning**:

Sun Jan 24 (6) Wisconsin L, 66-50 58 4% Away
Wed Jan 27 (49) Illinois L, 66-64 64 39% Home
Sun Jan 31 (9) Purdue L, 74-58 65 6% Away
Wed Feb 3 (16) Ohio St. L, 71-57 62 7% Away
Sat Feb 6 (20) Minnesota L, 68-62 67 25% Home
Sat Feb 13 (10) Michigan St. L, 70-62 65 20% Home
Wed Feb 17 (65) Northwestern L, 66-59 61 20% Away
Sat Feb 20 (64) Michigan L, 65-58 61 20% Away
Wed Feb 24 (16) Ohio St. L, 67-60 62 22% Home

This. This is not good. But it's open thread time, and you're familiar with the rules, such as they are. Indiana is the enemy. Swearing is best as garnish, not the main course. Your mood music, provided upon request.


* - Even with the dire victory probabilities, Pomeroy projects PSU for a 3-15 because that compilation of 20%'s will eventually result in a few wins. Check the bottom of his chart and you'll see that PSU has a 1.48% chance of a winless record. Maybe we can be awesome, indeed.

** - These numbers have changed slightly since I put this post together last night. Shut up.