|
Penn State |
Value (Nat'l Rank) |
Value (Nat'l Rank) |
Ohio State |
Advantage |
| Rushing Offense (ypg) | 149.6 (68) | 84.0 (4) | Rushing Defense (ypg) |   |
| Passing Offense (ypg) | 219.9 (61) | 150.2 (3) | Passing Defense (ypg) |
|
| Pass Efficiency | 125.9 (75) | 95.0 (3) | Pass Efficiency Defense |
|
| Total Offense (ypg) | 369.4 (68) | 234.2 (3) | Total Defense (ypg) |
|
| Scoring Offense (ppg) | 24.2 (82) | 13.6 (3) | Scoring Defense (ppg) |
|
| Rushing Defense (ypg) | 156.4 (68) | 211.8 (19) | Rushing Offense (ypg) | |
| Passing Defense (ypg) | 189.6 (26) | 244.0 (42) | Passing Offense (ypg) | Push |
| Pass Efficiency Defense | 130.1 (77) | 164.3 (5) | Pass Efficiency |
|
| Total Defense (ypg) | 346.0 (45) | 455.8 (17) | Total Offense (ypg) | |
| Scoring Defense (ppg) | 20.1 (28) | 42.0 (7) | Scoring Offense (ppg) | Push |
| Net Punting Yds | 39.1 (17) | 9.8 (38) | Punt Return Yds | Push |
| Punt Return Yds | 7.4 (71) | 32.9 (108) | Net Punting Yds |  |
| Kickoff Return Yds | 24.5 (19) | 22.5 (84) | Kickoff Return Defense |
|
| Kickoff Return Defense | 19.7 (22) | 25.8 (10) | Kickoff Return Yds | Push |
| Turnover Margin | -0.22 (67) | 1.44 (1) | Turnover Margin |
|
| Penalty Yds/Game | 27.8 (2) | 38.8 (13) | Penalty Yds/Game | Push |
| Sacks | 1.44 (91) | 2.11 (77) | Sacks Allowed | Push |
| Sacks Allowed | 1.00 (T-15) | 1.78 (T-75) | Sacks |
|
| Redzone Offense (%) | 0.79 (T-78) | 0.74 (T-20) | Redzone Defense (%) |
|
| Redzone Defense (%) | 0.91 (T-109) | 0.88 (T-24) | Redzone Offense (%) |
|
| Redzone TD % | 0.52 | 0.53 | Redzone TD % Defense |
|
| Redzone TD % Defense | 0.70 | 0.67 | Redzone TD % |
|
| 3rd Down Conv. % | 42.5 (43) | 29.2 (4) | 3rd Down Defense % | |
| 3rd Down Defense % | 30.1 (7) | 44.3 (36) | 3rd Down Conv. % | |
| 1st Downs Per Game | 19.3 (69) | 12.7 (2) | 1st Downs Allowed PG |
|
| 1st Downs Allowed PG | 17.6 (T-27) | 23.2 (19) | 1st Downs Per Game | Push |
Legend
Difference <25 in National Rank = Push
Difference >25 in National Rank =
Difference >50 in National Rank =
Difference >75 in National Rank =
Difference >100 in National Rank =
Note: The Redzone TD% and Redzone TD% Defense are calculated by me and not ranked by the NCAA. Determining who has the advantage in these categories is strictly my arbitrary judgement.
More analysis after the jump.
Hoo-boy that's a fun chart to look at, no? Now we see why the Buckeyes are favored by over two touchdowns.
The Buckeyes are obviously playing at a very high level this year. Winning this game on the road is going to take a superb effort by the Nittany Lions. So here is the part where I try to put a positive spin on it. Let's start out by looking at Ohio State's schedule so far.
| Opponent |
Opponent |
Total Offense |
Total Defense |
Result |
|
Marshall |
3-6 |
103 |
79 |
W 45-7 |
|
Miami (FL) |
6-3 |
37 |
14 |
W 36-24 |
|
Ohio |
7-3 |
82 |
32 |
W 43-7 |
|
East. Michigan |
1-8 |
90 |
111 |
W 73-20 |
|
@ Illinois |
5-4 |
71 |
43 |
W 24-13 |
|
Indiana |
4-5 |
50 |
76 |
W 38-10 |
|
@ Wisconsin |
8-1 |
44 |
22 |
L 18-31 |
|
Purdue |
4-5 |
104 |
56 |
W 49-0 |
|
@ Minnesota |
1-9 |
72 |
86 |
W 52-10 |
I'm sure some Buckeye fan will set me straight and tell me Ohio will probably win the MAC this year, but I only see two worthy opponents on this schedule. Wisconsin smashed them in a game that wasn't really as close as the score indicates. The Buckeyes were thoroughly outclassed in that game. Give them credit for beating Miami who is a very good team, but Ohio State was the benefactor of Jacory Harris throwing four interceptions that led to some easy scores. When Harris wasn't throwing at guys in scarlett jerseys, the Hurricanes were moving up and down the field quite well.
Other than these two opponents and maybe Illinois who gave them all they could handle right up until the end, Ohio State's schedule is garbage. Their stats are pretty inflated by playing some pretty crappy teams. But give them credit for taking care of business.
That being said, I'm not sure I would put Penn State on the same level with Wisconsin or Miami. I'm still not completely sold on the offensive line and, frankly, I'm not sleeping well trying to imagine our defensive ends trying to contain Terrelle Pryor inside the pocket. Pryor is second on the team in rushing yards with 463. Penn State has to hold him below his season average of 51 yards per game. This will be essential since I have noticed that Ohio State loves to run Pryor on quarterback draws when they need 5-7 yards on third down. If Sean Stanley and Pete Massaro keep running themselves out of the play on their outside pass rush, look out.
But one of the things I see in putting these charts together that doesn't really come out in the final product is how well Penn State has improved in the past few weeks. Each week I take the chart from the previous week and cut and paste it into a new post to start with. Then I start replacing all of the numbers from last week with the new number from this week. In doing so I've been able to see steady improvement each week. In a sense I believe this is a different team from the one we saw getting embarrassed in Tuscaloosa and against Illinois.
Though I see a lot of red on that chart above, but then I remember seeing a lot of maize on a chart a few weeks ago. And last week's chart had quite a bit of purple. I see a little blue, and I see a lot of push on the chart above. I can see this game being a blowout for Ohio State, but I can also see it being pretty close.