My malicious coup to wrest control of this post away from Jeff was successful.
Okay, it wasn't as interesting as that. Jeff is refocusing his efforts on recruiting and interviews. Stuff I'm not a big fan of writing myself, so it work out. What also works out here is that I absolutely love stats. This will be a match made in football heaven.
Penn St. Nittany Lions (5-1, 2-0 Big Ten) vs. Purdue Boilermakers (3-2, 1-0 Big Ten)
12 p.m., October 15, 2011
Beaver Stadium (Capacity: 106,572)
| Penn State | Value (Nat'l Rank) | Value (Nat'l Rank) | Purdue | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing Offense (ypg) | 162 (53) |
142.8 (59) | Rushing Defense (ypg) | Push |
| Passing Offense (ypg) | 212.17 (82) |
203 (32) | Passing Defense (ypg) |
|
| Pass Efficiency | 112.3 (101) |
125.31 (74) | Pass Efficiency Defense | |
| Total Offense (ypg) | 374.17 (81) |
345.8 (36) | Total Defense (ypg) | |
| Scoring Offense (ppg) | 21.5 (93) |
20.6 (30) | Scoring Defense (ppg) |
|
| Rushing Defense (ypg) | 93.17 (17) |
215.4 (20) | Rushing Offense (ypg) | Push |
| Passing Defense (ypg) | 157.67 (5) |
196.8 (93) | Passing Offense (ypg) |
|
| Pass Efficiency Defense | 89.81 (4) |
159.8 (14) | Pass Efficiency | Push |
| Total Defense (ypg) | 250.83 (4) |
412.2 (50) | Total Offense (ypg) | |
| Scoring Defense (ppg) | 10.5 (5) |
32.6 (42) | Scoring Offense (ppg) | |
| Net Punting Yds | 34.52 (102) |
8.90 (49) | Punt Return Yds |
|
| Punt Return Yds | 6.26 (79) |
42.58 (6) | Net Punting Yds |
|
| Kickoff Return Yds | 19.89 (92) |
25.67 (113) |
Kickoff Return Defense | Push |
| Kickoff Return Defense | 20.74 (54) |
23.18 (34) | Kickoff Return Yds | Push |
| Turnover Margin | +0.5 (T-36) |
+0.4 (T-43) | Turnover Margin | Push |
| Penalty Yds/Game | 44.83 (33) |
74.0 (T-114) | Penalty Yds/Game |
|
| Sacks | 2.17 (42) | 2.8 (102) | Sacks Allowed |
|
| Sacks Allowed | 0.83 (19) | 1.00 (107) | Sacks |
|
| Redzone Offense (%) | 0.75 (T-95) | 0.88 (T-90) | Redzone Defense (%) | Push |
| Redzone Defense (%) | 1.0 (T-119) | 0.84 (T-52) | Redzone Offense (%) |
|
| Redzone TD % | 0.47 | 0.72 | Redzone TD % Defense | |
| Redzone TD % Defense | 0.54 | 0.69 | Redzone TD % | |
| 3rd Down Conv. % | 39.33 (T-77) | 36.99 (49) | 3rd Down Defense % | |
| 3rd Down Defense % | 34.02 (35) |
43.24 (50) | 3rd Down Conv. % | Push |
| 1st Downs Per Game | 20 (74) | 20.20 (T-67) | 1st Downs Allowed PG | Push |
| 1st Downs Allowed PG | 14.67 (T-7) | 22.80 (34) | 1st Downs Per Game | |
Difference <25 in National Rank = Push
Difference >25 in National Rank =
Difference >50 in National Rank =
Difference >75 in National Rank =
Difference >100 in National Rank =
The "Old" Mike's note: The Redzone TD% and Redzone TD% Defense are calculated by me and not ranked by the NCAA. Determining who has the advantage in these categories is strictly my arbitrary judgement.
More analysis after the jump.
On the surface, there are an uncomfortable number of "P" up there. But comparing the two teams' opposition, it's not all that difficult to see that Purdue's stats are inflated (or deflated) to make them look better than they are. The Boilers' three wins this year came against... wait for it... Middle Tennessee State, Southeast Missouri State (FCS), and a Minnesota team so horrible, swapping them out for Temple would upgrade the Big Ten overnight. The two losses for Purdue tell the rest of the story, where they lost at Rice and were blown out by Notre Dame.
Just to hammer home the difference in strength of schedule, here is a side-by-side comparison of each team's best-to-worst opponents:
| Penn State | Purdue |
|---|---|
| #2 Alabama (L) |
Notre Dame (L) |
| Temple (W) |
Rice (L) |
| Iowa (W) |
MTSU (W) |
| Eastern Michigan (W) |
SE Missouri St (FCS) (W) |
| Indiana St (FCS) (W) |
- |
The fact that Iowa is the third-best team on Penn State's schedule says enough about the level of competition the two teams have faced so far this season. Alabama is dropping 30 points on the SEC each week like it's the MAC; Temple is good enough to beat about half the BCS automatic qualifiers; and Iowa's passing attack was torching opponents with ease... except when those teams faced Penn State's defense.
Helping Purdue's case up in the chart is also that Penn State's offense has been epically inefficient at scoring points this year. It doesn't take much to be statistically better than Penn State on offense.
Lastly, Penn State has given up points every time an opponent enters the red zone. But you see, despite those two "P" that suggest Purdue has the advantage here, the Nittany Lions red zone defense is probably the most misleading statistic you'll see in college football. Not only has Penn State only allowed 11 total drives to cross its 20 yard line, but the Nittany Lions defense has not allowed a single touchdown to be scored against it from outside the red zone.
What else do you see in these stats? Let's discuss...
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