Penn St. Nittany Lions (9-2, 6-1 Big Ten) vs. Wisconsin Badgers (9-2, 5-2)
BIG TEN LEADERS/EAST/PIG DIVISIONAL GAME
3:30 p.m. ET, November 19, 2011
Camp Randall Stadium (Capacity: 80,321)
| Penn State | Value (Nat'l Rank) | Value (Nat'l Rank) | Wisconsin | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing Offense (ypg) | 169.73 (45) |
135.45 (44) |
Rushing Defense (ypg) | Push |
| Passing Offense (ypg) | 185:91 (95) |
146.82 (3) |
Passing Defense (ypg) |
|
| Pass Efficiency | 106.53 (110) |
109.54 (10) |
Pass Efficiency Defense |
|
| Total Offense (ypg) | 355.64 (89) |
282.27 (6) |
Total Defense (ypg) |
|
| Scoring Offense (ppg) | 20.91 (106) |
15.91 (7) |
Scoring Defense (ppg) |
|
| Rushing Defense (ypg) | 127.36 (34) |
245.09 (10) |
Rushing Offense (ypg) | Push |
| Passing Defense (ypg) | 160 (6) |
234.45 (57) |
Passing Offense (ypg) |
|
| Pass Efficiency Defense | 96.35 (4) |
191.45 (2) |
Pass Efficiency | Push |
| Total Defense (ypg) | 287.36 (8) |
479.55 (12) |
Total Offense (ypg) | Push |
| Scoring Defense (ppg) | 13.00 (3) |
44.82 (5) |
Scoring Offense (ppg) | Push |
| Net Punting Yds | 35.21 (92) |
15.94 (5) |
Punt Return Yds |
|
| Punt Return Yds | 6.79 (80) |
36.06 (70) |
Net Punting Yds | Push |
| Kickoff Return Yds | 23.74 (26) |
22.56 (80) |
Kickoff Return Defense |
|
| Kickoff Return Defense | 21.69 (66) |
20.06 (90) |
Kickoff Return Yds | Push |
| Turnover Margin | +0.64 (23) |
+1.00 (7) |
Turnover Margin | Push |
| Penalty Yds/Game | 41.09 (T-23) |
41.82 (25) |
Penalty Yds/Game | Push |
| Sacks | 2.45 (25) |
1.64 (47) |
Sacks Allowed | Push |
| Sacks Allowed | 1.09 (21) |
2.09 (41) |
Sacks | Push |
| Redzone Offense (%) | 78% (86) |
83% (69) |
Redzone Defense (%) | Push |
| Redzone Defense (%) | 92% (115) |
95% (3) |
Redzone Offense (%) |
|
| Redzone TD % | 50% |
57% |
Redzone TD % Defense | Push |
| Redzone TD % Defense | 60% |
86% |
Redzone TD % |
|
| 3rd Down Conv. % | 37.27 (92) |
36.84 (T-39) |
3rd Down Defense % |
|
| 3rd Down Defense % | 36.99 (41) |
55.12 (3) |
3rd Down Conv. % | |
| 1st Downs Per Game | 19.27 (83) |
15.00 (4) |
1st Downs Allowed PG |
|
| 1st Downs Allowed PG | 16.18 (12) |
23.64 (22) |
1st Downs Per Game | Push |
Difference <25 in National Rank = Push
Difference >25 in National Rank =
Difference >50 in National Rank =
Difference >75 in National Rank =
Difference >100 in National Rank =
The "Old" Mike's note: The Redzone TD% and Redzone TD% Defense are calculated by me and not ranked by the NCAA. Determining who has the advantage in these categories is strictly my arbitrary judgment.
Analysis below the jump...
Yikes! Just in case you forgot about Wisconsin this season, there's a refresher for you to stress over. The tricky stats for Wisconsin are on defense. It's not a bad unit by any stretch of the imagination; but it's definitely not the sixth-best in the nation. Much of the high ranking for this unit comes from frequently playing with a lead... a BIG lead, courtesy of Russell Wilson and the offense. Again, the Badgers defense has been very good over the course of this season, but it's not better than the offense.
Penn State's offense makes any defense look great, however. So... as long as there aren't any major breakdowns by Wisconsin's D, or Penn State doesn't turn in another surprise attack on offense for the second week in a row, there's no way the Badgers shouldn't be able to keep the Lions down enough for Wilson & Co. to work their magic.
Opponent comparison... I've subjectively listed each team's opponents in order, top to bottom, strongest to weakest.
| Penn State | Wisconsin |
|---|---|
| Alabama Crimson Tide (L) 11 - 27 |
Michigan St. Spartans (L) 37-31 |
|
Nebraska Cornhuskers (L) 17-14 |
Nebraska Cornhuskers (W) 48-17 |
| Ohio St. Buckeyes (W) 20-14 |
Ohio St. Buckeyes (L) 33-29 |
| Iowa Hawkeyes (W) 13 - 3 | Illinois Fighting Illini (W) 28-17 |
| Temple Owls (W) 14 - 10 |
Purdue Boilermakers (W) 62-17 |
| Northwestern Wildcats (W) 34-24 | Northern Illinois Huskies (W) 49-7 |
| Purdue Boilermakers (W) 23 - 18 | Oregon St. Beavers (W) 35-0 |
| Illinois Fighting Illini (W) 10-7 | Indiana Hoosiers (W) 59-7 |
| Eastern Michigan Eagles (W) 34 - 6 | Minnesota Golden Gophers (W) 42-13 |
| Indiana Hoosiers (W) 16-10 | UNLV Rebels (W) 51-17 |
| Indiana St. Sycamores (FCS) (W) 41 - 7 | South Dakota Coyotes (FCS) (W) 59-10 |
Wisconsin lost to two of its top three best opponents. So did Penn State, and I'm willing to bet Alabama would crush Michigan State, Nebraska and Ohio State. The rest of the schedules get murky. Iowa is probably the best non-Big Four opponent, so Penn State gets the one-up there. Looking at Wisconsin's overall schedule, it's rather pathetic. The non-conference schedule was an absolute joke, while Minnesota will kill anyone's strength of schedule.
Wisconsin has won big, and lost close. Penn State has won close, and lost its two to a legit national title contender and while facing rather unusual circumstances. Despite the statistics swaying drastically in Wisconsin's favor, the schedules do set up Penn State to play well against the Badgers.
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