Just the Stats: Penn State vs Wisconsin

Penn St. Nittany Lions (7-4, 5-2 Big Ten) vs Wisconsin Badgers (7-4, 4-3 Big Ten)

3:30 p.m. ET, Nov. 24, 2012 - ESPN
Beaver Stadium / University Park, PA

Penn State	Value (Nat'l Rank)	Value (Nat'l Rank)	Wisconsin	Advantage
Rushing Offense (ypg)	142.18 (83)	106.64 (9)	Rushing Defense (ypg)
Passing Offense (ypg)	280.27 (34)	196.27 (25)	Passing Defense (ypg)	Push
Pass Efficiency	137.94 (49)	115.44 (25)	Pass Efficiency Defense	Push
Total Offense (ypg)	442.45 (48)	302.91 (11)	Total Defense (ypg)
Scoring Offense (ppg)	29.55 (56)	17.55 (14)	Scoring Defense (ppg)
Rushing Defense (ypg)	128.76 (23)	217.64 (17)	Rushing Offense (ypg)	Push
Passing Defense (ypg)	228.09 (52)	165.64 (110)	Passing Offense (ypg)
Pass Efficiency Defense	115.49 (26)	134.48 (61)	Pass Efficiency
Total Defense (ypg)	353.82 (30)	383.27 (83)	Total Offense (ypg)
Scoring Defense (ppg)	18.91 (22)	28.09 (67)	Scoring Offense (ppg)
Net Punting Yds	33.80 (110)	9.45 (52)	Punt Return Yds
Punt Return Yds	6.63 (87)	36.44 (68)	Net Punting Yds	Push
Kickoff Return Yds	18.22 (110)	19.51 (28)	Kickoff Return Defense
Kickoff Return Defense	21.86 (72)	20.41 (77)	Kickoff Return Yds	Push
Turnover Margin	0.73/gm* (21)	0.18/gm (48)	Turnover Margin
Penalty Yds/Game	50.82/gm^ (58)	33.64/gm (9)	Penalty Yds/Game
Sacks	2.82/gm (13)	2.18/gm (80)	Sacks Allowed
Sacks Allowed	1.73/gm (53)	2.09/gm (T-53)	Sacks	Push
Redzone Offense (%)	77%† (T-87)	91% (T-113)	Redzone Defense (%)
Redzone Defense (%)	66% (10)	81% (T-53)	Redzone Offense (%)
3rd Down Conv. %	42.29 (50)	30.91 (16)	3rd Down Defense %
3rd Down Defense %	37.71 (52)	33.77 (103)	3rd Down Conv. %
1st Downs Per Game	22.64 (38)	15.82/gm (T-7)	1st Downs Allowed PG
1st Downs Allowed PG	18.55 (27)	19.09/gm (T-96)	1st Downs Per Game

Difference <25 in National Rank = Push

Difference >25 in National Rank =

Difference >50 in National Rank =

Difference >75 in National Rank =

Difference >100 in National Rank =

Note: The Redzone TD% and Redzone TD% Defense are calculated by me and not ranked by the NCAA. Determining who has the advantage in these categories is strictly my arbitrary judgment.

Quick thoughts: Penn State is actually plus-3 in the logo department. That's a bit surprising, but it shouldn't be. Wisconsin's offense has been Montee-Ball-or-bust** this season, especially with the implosion of Danny O'Brien earlier in the year. Curt Phillips has been okay, but (can't believe I'm saying this) is definitely no Matt McGloin. The huge edge in this game might not show up in the data above, however, as Wisconsin doesn't run a zone-read or spread style offense, where the quarterback could pull the ball and run. Ohio, Ohio State and Nebraska all leaned heavily on the RB/QB runs, and it worked. But this week, with Ball running Iso, Penn State could force Wisconsin into throwing the ball to win. If that's the case, all Penn State has to do is keep its own offense on the field and avoid going 3-and-out more than once or twice the entire game.

**So, basically PSU's defensive strategy should be "Ball-busting" on Saturday, amirite?

*This number is simply the "on the books" turnover margin average, and does not reflect the non-fumble against Nebraska.

^If games were called against Penn State using the same standards as the rest of college football, this average would be greatly reduced. Expect this average to only get worse following the Wisconsin game.

†This scoring average does not reflect the Penn State touchdown the officiating crew refused to correctly call at Nebraska.

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