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Penn St. Nittany Lions (2-2, 0-0 Big Ten) vs. Illinois Fighting Illini (2-2, 0-0 Big Ten)
12:00 p.m. ET, Sept. 29, 2012 - ESPN2
Memorial Stadium (Capacity: 60,670) / Champaign, IL
| Penn State | Value (Nat'l Rank) | Value (Nat'l Rank) | Illinois | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing Offense (ypg) | 124.0 (94) |
105.25 (22) |
Rushing Defense (ypg) |
|
| Passing Offense (ypg) | 254.5 (45) |
244.0 (63) |
Passing Defense (ypg) | Push |
| Pass Efficiency | 132.54 (62) |
143.15 (100) |
Pass Efficiency Defense |  |
| Total Offense (ypg) | 378.5 (80) |
329.25 (35) |
Total Defense (ypg) | |
| Scoring Offense (ppg) | 22.0 (97) |
26.0 (73) |
Scoring Defense (ppg) | Push |
| Rushing Defense (ypg) | 143.75 (56) |
144.75 (84) |
Rushing Offense (ypg) | |
| Passing Defense (ypg) | 211.75 (49) |
201.0 (92) |
Passing Offense (ypg) | |
| Pass Efficiency Defense | 129.89 (69) |
139.45 (51) |
Pass Efficiency | Push |
| Total Defense (ypg) | 355.5 (53) |
345.75 (100) |
Total Offense (ypg) | |
| Scoring Defense (ppg) | 15.25 (24) |
26.5 (76) |
Scoring Offense (ppg) |
|
| Net Punting Yds | 30.94 (116) |
2.5 (T-105) |
Punt Return Yds | Push |
| Punt Return Yds | 5.44 (92) |
41.05 (17) |
Net Punting Yds |
|
| Kickoff Return Yds | 16.25 (109) |
21.0 (65) | Kickoff Return Defense | |
| Kickoff Return Defense | 19.27 (44) |
18.73 (89) | Kickoff Return Yds | |
| Turnover Margin | +1.0/gm (T-24) |
-0.25/gm (T-74) | Turnover Margin |
|
| Penalty Yds/Game | 48.75 (49) |
41.5 (35) | Penalty Yds/Game | Push |
| Sacks | 2.5/gm (T-35) |
3.25/gm (110) | Sacks Allowed |
|
| Sacks Allowed | 0.75/gm (15) |
1.5/gm (T-78) | Sacks |
|
| Redzone Offense (%) | 64% (T-105) |
79% (T-50) | Redzone Defense (%) |
|
| Redzone Defense (%) | 80% (T-54) |
79% (T-72) | Redzone Offense (%) | Push |
| Redzone TD % | 50% |
64% | Redzone TD % Defense | |
| Redzone TD % Defense | 60% |
71% | Redzone TD % | |
| 3rd Down Conv. % | 46.77 (31) |
26.53 (13) | 3rd Down Defense % | Push |
| 3rd Down Defense % | 46.03 (98) |
39.34 (76) | 3rd Down Conv. % | Push |
| 1st Downs Per Game | 20.75 (T-66) |
15.75 (18) | 1st Downs Allowed PG | |
| 1st Downs Allowed PG | 18.5 (T-43) |
17.75 (T-101) | 1st Downs Per Game |
|
Difference <25 in National Rank = Push
Difference >25 in National Rank =
Difference >50 in National Rank =
Difference >75 in National Rank =
Difference >100 in National Rank =
Note: The Redzone TD% and Redzone TD% Defense are calculated by me and not ranked by the NCAA. Determining who has the advantage in these categories is strictly my arbitrary judgment.
Quick thoughts: The numbers here would lead you to believe these are two pretty similar teams... but that couldn't be farther from the truth. Penn State is on a strong upswing after two convincing wins. Illinois is reeling after two embarrassing blowout losses. Huge red flags to watch for on Illinois' side would be the sacks, where Penn State has a five-chipmunk-head lead over the Illini, and turnovers. Since the opener against Ohio, Penn State is sporting an 8-to-1 turnover ratio. It would actually be 8-0 if you discount McGloin's one interception that was tipped by his own receiver into the Temple defender's arms. The final note here is that Illinois has struggled mightily the last two weeks defending pass-heavy, "fast" offenses. My "fast" I mean exactly the offense Penn State has started to run with Bill O'Brien at the controls. Against LaTech last week, the Illini defense was completely lost, with Bulldogs receivers frequently running free through the defensive backfield. I don't want to get ahead of myself just yet, because this game could be very tricky. But from what we can all see here, Penn State could have a fun time in Champaign. Could...
What say you?
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