Just the Stats: Penn State vs Nebraska

Penn St. Nittany Lions (6-4; 3-3 Big Ten) vs Nebraska Cornhuskers (7-3; 4-2 Big Ten)

3:30 p.m. ET, November 23, 2013--BTN
Beaver Stadium (Capacity: 106,572 / University Park, PA)

Penn State	Value (Nat'l Rank)	Value (Nat'l Rank)	Nebraska	Advantage
Rushing Offense (ypg)	179.2 (57)	160.8 (65)	Rushing Defense (ypg)	Push
Passing Offense (ypg)	255.4 (45)	212.7 (32)	Passing Defense (ypg)	Push
Pass Efficiency	130.07 (63)	119.82 (37)	Pass Efficiency Defense
Total Offense (ypg)	434.6 (50)	373.5 (41)	Total Defense (ypg)	Push
Scoring Offense (ppg)	29.3 (62)	24.6 (46)	Scoring Defense (ppg)	Push
Rushing Defense (ypg)	144.0 (34)	240.3 (16)	Rushing Offense (ypg)	Push
Passing Defense (ypg)	231.7 (66)	200.3 (89)	Passing Offense (ypg)	Push
Pass Efficiency Defense	126.45 (65)	134.79 (57)	Pass Efficiency	Push
Total Defense (ypg)	375.7 (45)	440.6 (45)	Total Offense (ypg)	Push
Scoring Defense (ppg)	26.7 (67)	35.1 (33)	Scoring Offense (ppg)
Net Punting Yds	35.9 (89)	3.61 (111)	Punt Return Yds	Push
Punt Return Yds	8.22 (63)	37.71 (46)	Net Punting Yds	Push
Kickoff Return Yds	19.97 (87)	17.75 (9)	Kickoff Return Defense
Kickoff Return Defense	24.74 (112)	22.14 (49)	Kickoff Return Yds
Turnover Margin	-.6 (99)	-.8 (T-106)	Turnover Margin	Push
Penalty Yds/Game	33.3 (9)	42.0 (81)	Penalty Yds/Game
Sacks	2.3/gm (T-41)	1.2/gm (T-19)	Sacks Allowed	Push
Sacks Allowed	2.1/gm (T-74)	1.33/gm (T-106)	Sacks
Redzone Offense (%)	85.7% (49)	93.3% (119)	Redzone Defense (%)
Redzone Defense (%)	84.4% (T-73)	90.2% (15)	Redzone Offense (%)
Redzone TD %	64.29%	63.33%	Redzone TD % Defense
Redzone TD % Defense	59.38%	73.17%	Redzone TD %
3rd Down Conv. %	35.9% (95)	30.9% (7)	3rd Down Defense %
3rd Down Defense %	37.4% (49)	44.4% (37)	3rd Down Conv. %	Push
4th Down Conv. %	54.2% (47)	37.5% (T-19)	4th Down Defense %
4th Down Defense %	36.4% (T-16)	75% (T-3)	4th Down Conv. %	Push
1st Downs	239 (T-30)	207 (T-65)	1st Downs Allowed
1st Downs Allowed	187 (26)	236 (T-35)	1st Downs	Push
Time of Possession	29:59 (58)	29:38 (69)	Time of Possession	Push

Difference <25 in National Rank = Push

Difference >25 in National Rank =

Difference >50 in National Rank =

Difference >75 in National Rank =

Difference >100 in National Rank =

Note: The Redzone TD% and Redzone TD% Defense are calculated by me and not ranked by the NCAA. Determining who has the advantage in these categories is strictly my arbitrary judgment.

Quick thoughts: There are a LOT of pushes up there, especially in most categories that matter (ie, the offensive and defensive matchups). This basically matches up well with what I thought going into creating this post--this will be a very evenly matched game.

The problem, of course, comes with Penn State's season-long weaknesses on special teams and third downs, where the Huskers clearly have the edge. I'm actually quite surprised that punting, from this, doesn't seem like it will be much of a liability for the Nittany Lions in this game (not having to punt a single time last week definitely helps), and giving up a kickoff return TD to the Boilers last week definitely skews things--but only a bit.

This may just been the week that Jesse Della Valle gets his special teams score, as Adam "Argyle" Collyer's been predicting for a bit now. I wouldn't bank on it...but it'll be a much better shot than next year. And we're against a team that averages less than four yards per punt return, so I say pressure on special teams, and pressure hard--a mistake in that crucial and oft-overlooked third part of the game, on either side, just might be the deciding factor come Saturday.

What say you all?

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