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In Part One, with the help of RoarLions, we explained how the NCAA determines which conferences receive auto bid invitations. If you haven't read that background info and are unfamiliar with the process, please give it a look.
Below, we're going to apply those rules to estimate where each of our Penn State wrestlers stand, and how the Big Ten might make out with receiving automatic qualifying bids to Nationals. Prepare yourself for a ton of tables, names, and numbers. And, if you're really crazy, we've shared all of our supporting data in one giant spreadsheet containing 397 wrestlers. Give it a go at your own peril, as you may go blind. Oh by the way - some of the data is a bit old, now. Both the Coaches Poll and RPI were released BEFORE last weekend's wrestling, which included National Duals, and Penn State vs. Oklahoma State, among many others. But - you can't beat the price.
In the tables below, you'll see "Safe", "Bubble", "Projected". Even though a weight class might have 32 wrestlers with a Coaches Ranking and an RPI, that doesn't mean they are automatically Silver Status, and have earned a bid. Only the Top 29 earn a bid (with each Conference tourney having at least 1 bid). So, the actual final criteria for earning a bid "floats", depending upon the goings on within the math. "Safe" is our way of saying that even with the floating criteria, these bids are making the cut. "Bubble" is the opposite. It includes wrestlers close to the top 29, who may earn a bid for his conference or not. "Projected" is our best guess of who gets what.
Now - let's get to it.
125 LBS
Safe | Bubble | Projected | |
---|---|---|---|
ACC | 2 | 2 | 4 |
Big 12 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
Big Ten | 7 | 0 | 7 |
EIWA | 5 | 1 | 5 |
EWL | 2 | 0 | 2 |
MAC | 3 | 2 | 5 |
PAC12 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
SoCon | 1 | 0 | 1 |
West | 2 | 0 | 2 |
TOTAL | 25 | 6 | 29 |
Coaches Rank | RPI Rank | Name | School | Wins | Losses | Win% | Safe | Bubble | Projected |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2 | 2 | Nico Megaludis | Penn State | 21 | 2 | 91.3% | 1 | 0 | 1 |
3 | 4 | Jesse Delgado | Illinois | 20 | 2 | 90.9% | 1 | 0 | 1 |
5 | NR | Thomas Gilman | Iowa | 13 | 3 | 81.3% | 1 | 0 | 1 |
9 | NR | Bradley Taylor | Wisconsin | 13 | 2 | 86.7% | 1 | 0 | 1 |
11 | 25 | Tim Lambert | Nebraska | 15 | 8 | 65.2% | 1 | 0 | 1 |
18 | 18 | Conor Youtsey | Michigan | 15 | 9 | 62.5% | 1 | 0 | 1 |
22 | 26 | Nick Roberts | Ohio State | 22 | 10 | 68.8% | 1 | 0 | 1 |
33 | NR | Samuel Brancale | Minnesota | 10 | 7 | 58.8% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
NR | 27 | Camden Eppert | Purdue | 10 | 11 | 47.6% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
NR | 33 | Garrison White | Northwestern | 4 | 12 | 25.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Our Guy: Nico is, of course, in outstanding shape. He's #2 in the Coaches' Poll, holds the #2 RPI, and his 21-2 record against D1 opponents yields a .913 Win%. That's 3 for 3, "Gold" standard, which brings an auto bid to the Big Ten Championships, where Nico more than likely will get the #1 seed.
Rest Of Big Ten: Our projection of 7 total bids is likely to hold up. Ohio State's Nicky Roberts is probably the last bid into the Big Ten pool, and he is (or was) just one or two more wins shy of .700 and 'Gold' status. Minnesota's Sam Brancale, despite his #33 Coaches Rank, is not likely to creep into the NCAA's top 29 ordering.
133 LBS
Safe | Bubble | Projected | |
---|---|---|---|
ACC | 2 | 0 | 2 |
Big 12 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
Big Ten | 7 | 1 | 7 |
EIWA | 4 | 0 | 4 |
EWL | 2 | 3 | 3 |
MAC | 4 | 1 | 5 |
PAC12 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
SoCon | 1 | 0 | 1 |
West | 1 | 0 | 1 |
TOTAL | 26 | 6 | 29 |
Coaches Rank | RPI Rank | Name | School | Wins | Losses | Win% | Safe | Bubble | Projected |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
3 | 4 | Tony Ramos | Iowa | 16 | 2 | 88.9% | 1 | 0 | 1 |
5 | 6 | Tyler Graff | Wisconsin | 21 | 3 | 87.5% | 1 | 0 | 1 |
8 | 10 | David Thorn | Minnesota | 15 | 4 | 78.9% | 1 | 0 | 1 |
9 | 8 | Johnni DiJulius | Ohio State | 17 | 3 | 85.0% | 1 | 0 | 1 |
9 | NR | Cashe Quiroga | Purdue | 10 | 5 | 66.7% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
13 | NR | Zane Richards | Illinois | 11 | 3 | 78.6% | 1 | 0 | 1 |
16 | 12 | James Gulibon | Penn State | 12 | 11 | 52.2% | 1 | 0 | 1 |
17 | 18 | Rosario Bruno | Michigan | 16 | 12 | 57.1% | 1 | 0 | 1 |
33 | 31 | Dom Malone | Northwestern | 9 | 12 | 42.9% | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Our Guy: If you set aside the recruiting hype and the expectations that come with it, Jimmy's had a really good first year in the lineup. He's ranked 16 in Coaches, with the #12 RPI. The .522 Win% could be better - and it will be in future years - but his season brings a bid to the party.
Rest of Big Ten: I think we're looking at 7 bids. Dom Malone made both the Coaches Poll and the RPI - usually that's "Silver" standard, and good enough for a bid. Probably not this year, though. 32 wrestlers have similar or better credentials, and we're thinking Dom falls on the 30 - 32 side, instead of the 26 - 29 side of the edge.
141 LBS
Safe | Bubble | Projected | |
---|---|---|---|
ACC | 4 | 0 | 4 |
Big 12 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
Big Ten | 6 | 3 | 7 |
EIWA | 4 | 3 | 5 |
EWL | 2 | 0 | 2 |
MAC | 4 | 2 | 5 |
PAC12 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
SoCon | 1 | 0 | 1 |
West | 1 | 0 | 1 |
TOTAL | 26 | 8 | 29 |
Coaches Rank | RPI Rank | Name | School | Wins | Losses | Win% | Safe | Bubble | Projected |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2 | 1 | Zain Retherford | Penn State | 25 | 0 | 100.0% | 1 | 0 | 1 |
3 | NR | Logan Stieber | Ohio State | 15 | 1 | 93.8% | 1 | 0 | 1 |
5 | 5 | Chris Dardanes | Minnesota | 16 | 5 | 76.2% | 1 | 0 | 1 |
10 | 2 | Josh Dziewa | Iowa | 15 | 6 | 71.4% | 1 | 0 | 1 |
14 | NR | Steven Rodrigues | Illinois | 7 | 3 | 70.0% | 1 | 0 | 1 |
21 | 21 | Danny Sabatello | Purdue | 17 | 8 | 68.0% | 1 | 0 | 1 |
23 | NR | Steve Dutton | Michigan | 6 | 2 | 75.0% | 0 | 1 | 1 |
30 | 32 | Pasquale Greco | Northwestern | 11 | 12 | 47.8% | 0 | 1 | 0 |
32 | 28 | Jesse Thielke | Wisconsin | 12 | 11 | 52.2% | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Our Guy: what else can you say about Zpain? The true frosh is undefeated, with wins during the season over top conference mates Stieber, Dardanes, Dziewa, and Sabatello. Crazy impressive.
Rest of Big Ten: we think there are three guys on the bubble here, Dutton, Greco, and Thielke. We have Dutton earning the auto bid, while Greco and Thielke do not, leaving the Big Ten with 7 bids here.
149 LBS
Safe | Bubble | Projected | |
---|---|---|---|
ACC | 4 | 1 | 5 |
Big 12 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
Big Ten | 6 | 0 | 6 |
EIWA | 3 | 1 | 4 |
EWL | 3 | 1 | 4 |
MAC | 3 | 1 | 4 |
PAC12 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
SoCon | 1 | 2 | 2 |
West | 1 | 0 | 1 |
TOTAL | 24 | 7 | 29 |
Coaches Rank | RPI Rank | Name | School | Wins | Losses | Win% | Safe | Bubble | Projected |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
3 | 2 | Nick Dardanes | Minnesota | 19 | 2 | 90.5% | 1 | 0 | 1 |
4 | 9 | Jake Sueflohn | Nebraska | 25 | 3 | 89.3% | 1 | 0 | 1 |
5 | 11 | Jason Tsirtsis | Northwestern | 20 | 3 | 87.0% | 1 | 0 | 1 |
7 | 5 | Eric Grajales | Michigan | 16 | 8 | 66.7% | 1 | 0 | 1 |
8 | 10 | Brody Grothus | Iowa | 14 | 7 | 66.7% | 1 | 0 | 1 |
16 | NR | Zachary Beitz | Penn State | 7 | 7 | 50.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
20 | 15 | Ian Paddock | Ohio State | 18 | 10 | 64.3% | 1 | 0 | 1 |
28 | NR | Caleb Ervin | Illinois | 5 | 5 | 50.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
NR | 26 | Brandon Nelsen | Purdue | 12 | 12 | 50.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
NR | 29 | Eric Roach | Indiana | 14 | 12 | 53.8% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Our Guy: First, do we know who our guys will be? Andrew Alton, Zack Beitz, and Jim English have all taken turns. The most recent rumors have Jim taking this spot. But whether it's Jim or Zack or even Andrew, they're all going to be in the same situation: none is likely to earn a bid for the conference tournament, and none are likely to get picked from an at large pool. So, if we want a representative at Nationals, our guy here needs to place Top 6 at Big Tens.
Rest Of Big Tens: We're loaded, and top heavy this year. Dardanes, Sueflohn, Tsirtsis, Grajales, and Grothus are all safe bets for auto bids, and more than likely, to place. That's 5. The only other auto bid we see here is from Ohio State's Paddock, for a total of 6. Meanwhile, we'll be pulling for Jim or Zack to break into that upper echelon. And oh by the way - Caleb Ervin and Brandon Nelsen are both past NCAA qualifiers, who were ranked at one point or another this season. That's 9 guys who will be fighting for 6 spots. Get ready for mayhem.
157 LBS
Safe | Bubble | Projected | |
---|---|---|---|
ACC | 4 | 0 | 4 |
Big 12 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
Big Ten | 8 | 0 | 8 |
EIWA | 3 | 2 | 5 |
EWL | 2 | 0 | 2 |
MAC | 4 | 2 | 4 |
PAC12 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
SoCon | 1 | 1 | 1 |
West | 1 | 2 | 1 |
TOTAL | 26 | 8 | 29 |
Coaches Rank | RPI Rank | Name | School | Wins | Losses | Win% | Safe | Bubble | Projected |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 1 | James Green | Nebraska | 24 | 0 | 100.0% | 1 | 0 | 1 |
2 | 2 | Derek St. John | Iowa | 17 | 2 | 89.5% | 1 | 0 | 1 |
5 | NR | Dylan Ness | Minnesota | 12 | 4 | 75.0% | 1 | 0 | 1 |
7 | 12 | Isaac Jordan | Wisconsin | 18 | 4 | 81.8% | 1 | 0 | 1 |
7 | 14 | Taylor Walsh | Indiana | 25 | 3 | 89.3% | 1 | 0 | 1 |
10 | NR | Dylan Alton | Penn State | 15 | 2 | 88.2% | 1 | 0 | 1 |
13 | 13 | Zach Brunson | Illinois | 14 | 6 | 70.0% | 1 | 0 | 1 |
14 | 5 | Brian Murphy | Michigan | 14 | 5 | 73.7% | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Our Guy: For all the complaining I've seen, I find it funny that Dylan's 15-2 coming back from shoulder surgery, ranked 10th in the nation. Kinda crazy. Dylan will be bringing a bid to Big Tens.
Rest of Big Tens: this weight is so deep it's stupid. 6 of the top 10 are Big Ten guys. And yes, the data above is a bit old. Consensus #1 James Green just lost for the first time all season to Wisconsin's Ike Jordan, in OT. This weight will be an absolute meat grinder from round 2 through the finals. But that's also why the Top 8 are headed to Nationals.
165 LBS
Safe | Bubble | Projected | |
---|---|---|---|
ACC | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Big 12 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
Big Ten | 7 | 1 | 8 |
EIWA | 4 | 1 | 5 |
EWL | 2 | 1 | 3 |
MAC | 3 | 0 | 3 |
PAC12 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
SoCon | 3 | 0 | 3 |
West | 2 | 1 | 2 |
TOTAL | 25 | 6 | 29 |
Coaches Rank | RPI Rank | Name | School | Wins | Losses | Win% | Safe | Bubble | Projected |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 1 | David Taylor | Penn State | 24 | 0 | 100.0% | 1 | 0 | 1 |
4 | 2 | Nick Moore | Iowa | 16 | 2 | 88.9% | 1 | 0 | 1 |
6 | 19 | Daniel Yates | Michigan | 16 | 5 | 76.2% | 1 | 0 | 1 |
7 | 10 | Pierce Harger | Northwestern | 18 | 5 | 78.3% | 1 | 0 | 1 |
13 | 15 | Jackson Morse | Illinois | 17 | 4 | 81.0% | 1 | 0 | 1 |
21 | 18 | Austin Wilson | Nebraska | 13 | 11 | 54.2% | 1 | 0 | 1 |
22 | 22 | Ryan Leblanc | Indiana | 28 | 10 | 73.7% | 1 | 0 | 1 |
25 | 16 | Daniel Zilverberg | Minnesota | 11 | 11 | 50.0% | 0 | 1 | 1 |
NR | 31 | Chad Welch | Purdue | 7 | 13 | 35.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Our Guy: when "your guy" is David Taylor, the math becomes really easy.
Rest of Big Ten: you wouldn't think it, because Taylor kills everyone, but 165 is as tough a weight, or nearly so, as 157. We see seven "safe" bids, and think that Zilberberg snags an 8th for good measure.
174 LBS
Safe | Bubble | Projected | |
---|---|---|---|
ACC | 3 | 0 | 3 |
Big 12 | 4 | 0 | 4 |
Big Ten | 5 | 1 | 6 |
EIWA | 4 | 1 | 4 |
EWL | 2 | 0 | 2 |
MAC | 3 | 3 | 5 |
PAC12 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
SoCon | 1 | 0 | 1 |
West | 1 | 0 | 1 |
TOTAL | 25 | 7 | 29 |
Coaches Rank | RPI Rank | Name | School | Wins | Losses | Win% | Safe | Bubble | Projected |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
3 | 2 | Robert Kokesh | Nebraska | 24 | 1 | 96.0% | 1 | 0 | 1 |
4 | 3 | Logan Storley | Minnesota | 18 | 3 | 85.7% | 1 | 0 | 1 |
5 | 5 | Mathew Brown | Penn State | 23 | 3 | 88.5% | 1 | 0 | 1 |
6 | NR | Michael Evans | Iowa | 14 | 3 | 82.4% | 1 | 0 | 1 |
12 | 10 | Mark Martin | Ohio State | 20 | 7 | 74.1% | 1 | 0 | 1 |
15 | NR | Leroy Munster | Northwestern | 6 | 4 | 60.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
25 | NR | Tony Dallago | Illinois | 12 | 8 | 60.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
29 | 19 | Scott Liegel | Wisconsin | 13 | 7 | 65.0% | 0 | 1 | 1 |
NR | 12 | Collin Zeerip | Michigan | 14 | 11 | 56.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
NR | 24 | Patrick Kissel | Purdue | 9 | 11 | 45.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Our Guy: really, it's not just David Taylor. All of the math gets easy for Penn State once you hit 165 and head north. Matt Brown, aka Hulk Hands, is bringing a bid to the conference tourney.
Rest of Big Tens: this weight isn't as tough as last year, when 8 of the national top 10 were Big Ten wrestlers. This year, it's only 4 or 5 of the national top 10. So much easier. One of those who won't be bringing a bid is Tony Dallago, the Central Dauphin 5th year senior wrestling for Illinois, who started the pre-season in the top 10. Lee Munster, another former top 10 wrestler, also is unlikely to bring a bid, after battling a knee injury for the last 4 or 5 weeks. Wisconsin's Liegel, a freakish athlete, is on the bubble as well, but we think he brings the Big Ten total to 6. If everyone was healthy and "on" in this weight class, we might be looking at 8 or 9 bids. Instead, you'll have desparate top 10 type of guys - about 9 of them - fighting for 6 spots.
184 LBS
Safe | Bubble | Projected | |
---|---|---|---|
ACC | 4 | 1 | 5 |
Big 12 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Big Ten | 5 | 3 | 6 |
EIWA | 4 | 0 | 4 |
EWL | 3 | 0 | 3 |
MAC | 4 | 1 | 5 |
PAC12 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
SoCon | 1 | 0 | 1 |
West | 1 | 1 | 2 |
TOTAL | 24 | 8 | 29 |
Coaches Rank | RPI Rank | Name | School | Wins | Losses | Win% | Safe | Bubble | Projected |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2 | 3 | Edward Ruth | Penn State | 22 | 1 | 95.7% | 1 | 0 | 1 |
4 | NR | Ethen Lofthouse | Iowa | 11 | 2 | 84.6% | 1 | 0 | 1 |
8 | 4 | Kevin Steinhaus | Minnesota | 15 | 3 | 83.3% | 1 | 0 | 1 |
9 | 8 | Timothy Dudley | Nebraska | 21 | 4 | 84.0% | 1 | 0 | 1 |
11 | 5 | Kenny Courts | Ohio State | 20 | 5 | 80.0% | 1 | 0 | 1 |
19 | NR | Domenic Abounader | Michigan | 8 | 8 | 50.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
23 | 11 | John Rizqallah | Michigan State | 16 | 8 | 66.7% | 0 | 1 | 1 |
26 | NR | Jackson Hein | Wisconsin | 11 | 5 | 68.8% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
28 | 24 | Lucas Sheridan | Indiana | 21 | 11 | 65.6% | 0 | 1 | 0 |
31 | 16 | Lazarus Reyes | Illinois | 14 | 7 | 66.7% | 0 | 1 | 0 |
NR | 30 | Jacob Berkowitz | Northwestern | 8 | 12 | 40.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Our Guy: Ed freaking Ruth. That's all you need to know.
Rest of Big Tens: we have 3 guys on the bubble here - Rizqallah, Sheridan, and Reyes. A fourth, Abounader, is ranked in the top 20, but is on the outside looking in. So, this is another deep weight class. Having said that, though, we think only Rizqallah earns a bid out of those 4, leaving the conference total at just 6 instead of 9.
197 LBS
Safe | Bubble | Projected | |
---|---|---|---|
ACC | 5 | 0 | 5 |
Big 12 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
Big Ten | 7 | 1 | 8 |
EIWA | 3 | 2 | 5 |
EWL | 1 | 1 | 2 |
MAC | 2 | 2 | 3 |
PAC12 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
SoCon | 1 | 0 | 1 |
West | 1 | 0 | 1 |
TOTAL | 24 | 7 | 29 |
Coaches Rank | RPI Rank | Name | School | Wins | Losses | Win% | Safe | Bubble | Projected |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2 | 1 | Scott Schiller | Minnesota | 21 | 1 | 95.5% | 1 | 0 | 1 |
4 | 2 | Morgan McIntosh | Penn State | 24 | 2 | 92.3% | 1 | 0 | 1 |
7 | NR | Mario Gonzalez | Illinois | 7 | 1 | 87.5% | 1 | 0 | 1 |
8 | 14 | Nick Heflin | Ohio State | 15 | 4 | 78.9% | 1 | 0 | 1 |
12 | 15 | Braden Atwood | Purdue | 20 | 7 | 74.1% | 1 | 0 | 1 |
13 | NR | Nathan Burak | Iowa | 11 | 3 | 78.6% | 1 | 0 | 1 |
14 | 9 | Alex Polizzi | Northwestern | 15 | 7 | 68.2% | 1 | 0 | 1 |
30 | NR | Caleb Kolb | Nebraska | 3 | 5 | 37.5% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
31 | 29 | Nick McDiarmid | Michigan State | 15 | 8 | 65.2% | 0 | 1 | 1 |
NR | 26 | Timothy McCall | Wisconsin | 11 | 9 | 55.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Our Guy: Morg's golden, and probably gets the 1-seed at Big Tens, after Heflin knocked off Schiller to give Goldy's stud a second loss.
Rest of Big Tens: Sparty's McDiarmid is on the bubble, but we think he squares one. His .652 Win% certainly doesn't hurt his case. If he does, then the Big Ten gets 8 total bids. Nebraska's Kolb doesn't have the matches, or the wins this season - but he could take the 8th (or better) spot at Big Tens.
285 LBS
Safe | Bubble | Projected | |
---|---|---|---|
ACC | 4 | 1 | 4 |
Big 12 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
Big Ten | 9 | 0 | 9 |
EIWA | 4 | 0 | 4 |
EWL | 2 | 0 | 2 |
MAC | 1 | 2 | 3 |
PAC12 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
SoCon | 1 | 1 | 2 |
West | 1 | 0 | 1 |
TOTAL | 26 | 4 | 29 |
Coaches Rank | RPI Rank | Name | School | Wins | Losses | Win% | Safe | Bubble | Projected |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | NR | Mike McMullan | Northwestern | 10 | 1 | 90.9% | 1 | 0 | 1 |
2 | 1 | Adam Coon | Michigan | 24 | 1 | 96.0% | 1 | 0 | 1 |
3 | NR | Bobby Telford | Iowa | 12 | 3 | 80.0% | 1 | 0 | 1 |
4 | 2 | Adam Chalfant | Indiana | 21 | 2 | 91.3% | 1 | 0 | 1 |
5 | 3 | Anthony Nelson | Minnesota | 18 | 4 | 81.8% | 1 | 0 | 1 |
7 | 6 | Mike McClure | Michigan State | 21 | 5 | 80.8% | 1 | 0 | 1 |
9 | 10 | Connor Medbery | Wisconsin | 16 | 5 | 76.2% | 1 | 0 | 1 |
12 | 5 | James Lawson | Penn State | 15 | 4 | 78.9% | 1 | 0 | 1 |
23 | 25 | Collin Jensen | Nebraska | 19 | 9 | 67.9% | 1 | 0 | 1 |
NR | 27 | Chris Lopez | Illinois | 8 | 15 | 34.8% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
NR | 33 | Nick Tavanello | Ohio State | 15 | 12 | 55.6% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Our Guy: Law Dog is back, and even though he missed a month with a bad knee, he's done enough to bring a bid to the party.
Rest of Big Ten: Nine. Nine bids, and 7 of them are ranked in the top 10 nationally. This should be, even though it's the shaved bears, a very entertaining Big Tens weight.