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Just the Stats: the College Football Playoff National Championship Game

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Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports

Oregon Ducks (13-1; 9-1 Pac 12) vs Ohio State Buckeyes (13-1; 9-0 Big Ten)

8:30 p.m. ET, January 12, 2015--ESPN
AT&T Stadium (Capacity: 80,000
/ Arlington, TX)

Oregon Value (Nat'l Rank) Value (Nat'l Rank) Ohio State Advantage
Rushing Offense (ypg) 241.9 (17) 142.0 (34) Rushing Defense (ypg) Push
Passing Offense (ypg) 311.0 (11) 191.6 (16) Passing Defense (ypg) Push
Pass Efficiency 183.56 (1) 104.79 (4) Pass Efficiency Defense Push
Total Offense (ypg) 552.9 (3) 333.6 (17) Total Defense (ypg) Push
Scoring Offense (ppg) 47.2 (2) 22.1 (26) Scoring Defense (ppg) Push
Rushing Defense (ypg) 156.1 (49) 262.2 (9) Rushing Offense (ypg)
Passing Defense (ypg) 265.9 (108) 247.5 (51) Passing Offense (ypg)
Pass Efficiency Defense 123.59 (50) 167.97 (2) Pass Efficiency
Total Defense (ypg) 421.9 (84) 509.7 (9) Total Offense (ypg)
Scoring Defense (ppg) 22.3 (27) 45.0 (5) Scoring Offense (ppg) Push
Net Punting Yds 36.66 (77)
11.32 (18) Punt Return Yds
Punt Return Yds 12.48 (12) 41.78 (5) Net Punting Yds Push
Kickoff Return Yds 20.34 (77) 17.5 (11) Kickoff Return Defense
Kickoff Return Defense 21.37 (71) 22.71 (28) Kickoff Return Yds
Turnover Margin 1.43 (2)
.71 (T-17) Turnover Margin Push
Penalty Yds/Game 72.0 (115) 48.64 (46) Penalty Yds/Game
Sacks 2.57/gm (33) 1.93/gm (55) Sacks Allowed Push
Sacks Allowed 2.07/gm (63)
3.07/gm (13)
Sacks
Redzone Offense (%) 86.8% (39)
85.4% (84)
Redzone Defense (%)
Redzone Defense (%) 83.3% (T-66)
84.1% (53) Redzone Offense (%) Push
Redzone TD % 67.11% 73.17%
Redzone TD % Defense
Redzone TD % Defense 59.26% 69.57%
Redzone TD % Push
3rd Down Conv. % 51.6% (4)
35.5% (24)
3rd Down Defense % Push
3rd Down Defense % 41.6% (82)
51.9% (3) 3rd Down Conv. %
4th Down Conv. % 65.4% (17) 58.8% (T-85) 4th Down Defense %
4th Down Defense % 44.4% (T-38)
52.6% (51) 4th Down Conv. % Push
1st Downs 386 (2) 263 (T-64) 1st Downs Allowed
1st Downs Allowed 321 (119) 358 (5) 1st Downs
Time of Possession 27:07 (117)
31:04 (37) Time of Possession

Difference

Difference >25 in National Rank = Penn_state_logo_medium

Difference >50 in National Rank = Penn_state_logo_mediumPenn_state_logo_medium

Difference >75 in National Rank = Penn_state_logo_mediumPenn_state_logo_mediumPenn_state_logo_medium

Difference >100 in National Rank = Penn_state_logo_mediumPenn_state_logo_mediumPenn_state_logo_mediumPenn_state_logo_medium

Note: The Redzone TD% and Redzone TD% Defense are calculated by me and not ranked by the NCAA. Determining who has the advantage in these categories is strictly my arbitrary judgment.

Quick thoughts: Based on the above graph, one would be shocked that Oregon is the multi-score favorite in tonight's matchup. Their mode of scoring, however (quick strikes, rapid fire, no huddle) lends itself to high scores, lots of penalties, and letting up a lot of yards to opposing offenses--because those offenses are, more often than not, playing from behind in order to catch up with the Ducks.

Ohio State's game plan tonight should be to slow down Oregon's offense, force them to punt, and make them use all four downs--something they haven't done a lot all year. If they can do that, they have a good shot--and if they can do that, the numbers are in the Buckeyes' favor.

What do you guys think?