If we throw out my "take a stab at this" Penn State-SDSU tip of the Aztecs +15, last week was not really that bad. Sure, there was the spectacular miss on BYU +6.5, but Bowling Green made things look better with that late score against Purdue. I also hate that gambling made me watch any of that BGSU-Purdue game last weekend given whatever the hell that was Purdue wore. Note to the Boilermakers: You are black and gold, not black and traffic cone yellow.
Penn State -24.5 vs. Army West Point
First of all, yes, they are going by Army West Point now. And since every single person that attends the United States Military Academy, every person that ever has attended the United States Military Academy, and every person that ever will attend the United States Military Academy is a far better person than me, I'm going with that.
There was not even a point spread for the game until Monday afternoon, and as of Wednesday evening, there still is not anything on the board at a few of the big Las Vegas books. With uncertainty at quarterback for Black Knights, and the questions surrounding Saquon Barkley's availability, that is hardly surprising.
Given how much Penn State has relied on Barkley, and my hunch (with exactly zero inside information) being that he sits this one out, not to mention the likely deluge of rain, I'd take the points here. I would definitely hammer the under (47.5) too.
One of my favorite sayings is "Vegas never overreacts". However, every now and then, I like to think do. Case and point, BYU -18 vs. UConn. Yes, BYU got hammered last week at Michigan, and it's a short week, but UConn is very bad. Not to mention this has moved down from 19.5 earlier in the week, and has hit 17.5 in a few spots. I'll take the Cougars to (re)cover with a comfy win at home.
Staying out west, UCLA is only -13.5, at home, against an absolutely reeling Arizona State team. The Bruins return to LA off a monster 56-30 win in Tucson, while the Devils head north off a 42-14 throttling from USC. Neither game was really that close either. Furthermore, Todd Graham's team has been run off the field by both of their legit opponents this year (38-17 vs. Texas A&M to open the year). The Bruins have been decimated by injuries, which gives me a little pause, but it's tough to see ASU keeping this close. Take UCLA.
Eli's #HOT #PICKS
Miami -6.5 at Cincinnati - Both of these teams have potent offenses. Both of these teams have shown lapses on defense. However, Miami has at least shown that it can stop people on defense from time to time, while Cincinnati has not. Buy the half-point if you want to, but it shouldn't be necessary.
Iowa +7 at Wisconsin - This isn't so much a "Go Iowa Awesome!" as it is "well these teams always manage to play close games." Wisconsin is still figuring things out on offense, while Iowa can't seem to score less than 30 a game nowadays. If it weren't because Iowa, I'd pick them to win straight up.
Texas Tech-Baylor OVER 89 - These offenses are going to score, and they're going to score a lot. 89 seems like a lot of points, but when you have an offense that gets penalized for going too fast (Texas Tech), it only means points.
Last Week's Prop Bet Results
Christian Hackenberg Passing Yards (O/U 200) - 296 (and some of you had the gall to go under!)
Penn State Team Rushing Yards (O/U 275) - 72 (I think I get a pass for this, because injuries)
Nick Scott Kickoff Return TDs (O/U .5) - 0 (This is going to hit sooner or later this season!)
Nick Scott Special Teams Tackles (O/U 3.5) - 0 ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Bets Matt Actually Wins This Week (O/U 1.5) - 1 (SO CLOSE!)
Fun Prop Bets to Ride Out a Hurricane
Penn State Passing Attempts - O/U 17.5
Army West Point Passing Attempts - O/U 6.5
Rushing Yards by Penn State Running Backs - O/U 169.5
Penn State Tackles for Loss - O/U 10.5
Total Elapsed Time - O/U 2:45