Last week was quite a bit of fun around. Of course Penn State's dominant 29-7 homecoming win over Indiana (which both covered and hit the under) was a highlight, but Baylor provided a nice win as well. Plus the rookie was a spectacular 0-3 in his picks. It happens to the best of us, Eli, but well, consider this your official welcome. Just never tell me when I strike out.
Penn State vs. Ohio State (-17)
Trying to predict this game feels next to impossible. We are all familiar with the, ahem, ups and downs of Penn State's season. While it is hardly to the same extreme, Ohio State has struggled to find much consistency themselves throughout much of this season. There is no disputing the talent that Urban Meyer can roll out all over the field, but making it work is, well, a work in progress.
After opening at -21 offshore, the spread has been right around 17 to 17.5 all week. This one has had the feel of a 27-10 type game to me most of the week, where PSU might hang around for awhile, but just can't keep the offense on the field long enough. If push comes to shove, I'd probably take OSU and give those points, but it would be a real close call. The O/U of 49 does feel a little high to me, and keep in mind, the under has hit in five of PSU's six games.
I am pretty sure that the week you visit Baton Rouge is not the week you want controversy with your quarterback. But that is exactly where Florida finds itself before Saturday night's trip to Death Valley. I was leaning towards LSU before the Will Grier news on Monday, but that clinched it, even with with the 3 point jump (6.5 to 9.5) from Monday to Tuesday. LSU has the home field, a new Gators QB, and some guy named Leonard Fournette.
I think it was about two weeks ago that Michigan State was about a touchdown favorite against Michigan. Now, two days before the game, the Wolverines are giving eight points to their in-state rivals. That's a 15-point swing, if you are scoring at home. While I take nothing away form Michigan's three game shutout streak, Michigan State is far and away the best team it has played, and Connor Cook is by far the best quarterback it has seen this season. Michigan may win the game, but Sparty keeps it close. Take those points!
Eli's #HOT #PICKS
Western Kentucky -32.5 at North Texas - I jumped on this line as soon as it came out (-31 at the time). If you've been paying attention, any team with half a pulse has been able to drop 60 on North Texas. Western Kentucky has the ability to drop 60 on teams much better than North Texas. If such a large line is not your cup of tea, you can opt for the over, which is 70.5. As always, if you take any of these, drop the half-point.
Texas Tech -31 at Kansas - Texas Tech is another team that doesn't have any problem dropping three touchdowns per minute, while Kansas is, well, Kansas. As with Western Kentucky, if such a line is not your cup of tea, look towards the total on this one, which is sitting at 75.
Temple -21 vs. UCF - Temple is humming along, while UCF is well on their way to a 0-12 season. There's no Blake Bortles this time around on UCF's end, so this could get real ugly real fast.
Houston -19 at Tulane - Remember how Temple destroyed Tulane by 39 last week? Houston scores about twice as fast as Temple does. Houston, along with Memphis and Temple (and Navy to a lesser extent), are the cream of the crop in the American. This game will get out of hand quickly.
Last Week's #PUNTWEEK Prop Bet Results
Penn State Punts (O/U 6.5) - 7
Indiana Punts (O/U 6.5) - 11
Combined Fake Punts (O/U 1.5) - 0 (what kind of #PUNTWEEK does not have a single damn fake punt???)
Combined Block Punts (O/U .5) - 0 (WORST. #PUNTWEEK. EVER.)
Total Trick Punts (O/U .5) - 0 (I am sad)
#NotARivalryWeek Prop Bets
Saquon Barkley Rushing Attempts - O/U 14.5
Christian Hackenberg Passing Yards - O/U 199.5
Joey Bosa Sacks - O/U 2.5
Joey Bosa Personal Fouls - O/U .5
Ohio State Points Scored Off of Botched Officiating Calls - O/U 3.5