BSD Film Room: Indiana is 11.3 Percent Awful

This post runs long and covers three different questions, so we're keeping the intro short this week. If you scroll down, you'll read moronic ramblings on the following:

1) Run the dive - run it again - third time is the charm?

2) Hack sucks - no he doesn't; and

3) Indiana's defense is terrible - no it's not - yes it is.

Kill The Lights

Here's your situation, as offensive coordinator. The score is 10-0, early in the third quarter. You've been gifted a first down and five at the Army 12-yard line, thanks to the once-in-a-blue-moon defensive delay of game penalty (for simulating snap counts to make our O-line false start). If you put the ball in the end zone, you're up three scores, and the game is 95 percent over.

A 1st-and-5 is a 'UUGE gift. Your entire playbook comes alive before you - play action, gadget plays, pick plays, tall receiver on short DB fades - all of it. John Donovan dials up "beef," with three tight ends, featuring Brent Wilkerson and Mike Gesicki throwing key blocks.

Here's what's great about 1st-and-5 - when you run for just two yards, you still get 2nd-and-3. On 2nd-and-3, your entire playbook comes alive - play action, gadget plays, pick plays, tall receiver on short DB fades - all of it. Everything is available. John Donovan dials up "beef," with two tight ends, featuring Mike Gesicki on the key 'trap' block.

Here's what's great about 2nd-and-3 - when you run for just one yard, you still get 3rd-and-2. On 3rd-and-2, your entire playbook comes alive - play action, gadget plays, pick plays, tall receiver on short DB fades - all of it. Everything is available. John Donovan dials up "really beef", this time with four tight ends, one of whom is #86 Albert Hall, a sometimes offensive tackle.

Here's what's bad about running "beef" three plays in a row, even when we're gifted a 1st-and-5: WE'RE NOT ANY GOOD AT IT. We spent 13 games last season being not any good at it.  We've spent five games this year being not any good at it.

"Oh, but what about four games hence," you ask?  Will this metaphorical desert of an offensive play become the Garden of Eden?  No, it's gonna be sand (caveat clickor: Sam Kinison tube).

On the bright side, John Donovan should now, finally, without objection, posses all the evidence he needs to dump every single one of his many "beef" packages from his play sheet.  Right?  We really, really, shouldn't have to watch this any more this season.  Please?  Because if it doesn't work on three consecutive attempts against Army, then maybe - juuuust maybe - it's just not one of our strengths, and we could invest those three snaps on finding something else we do poorly.

Your Christian Hackenberg Section

We interrupt this Film Room to get Todd McShay's opinion of Christian Hackenberg's draft status.

Attaboy, Todd.

Below is a table of all 19 Christian Hackenberg throws from Saturday. Each throw includes a link to a gif of the play.  Film Room uses the wildly entrenched message board scale of "Hack sucks: yes or nope?" to grade each play.

Snap	Play Description	Result	Hack Sucks?
1	5yd hitch to Godwin; Godwin slips	Incomplete	Nope
2	Quick hitch to Godwin; Godwin misses check	Incomplete	Nope
3	Checkdown to Wilkerson	Complete	Nope
4	Army blitzes, Hack short-arms outlet to Scott	Incomplete	Yes
5	4th down, out to Hamilton	Complete	Nope
6	Checkdown to Gesicki; Gesicki drops	Incomplete	Nope
7	Bubble screen to Godwin	Complete	Nope
8	Checkdown to Wilkerson	Complete	Nope
9	5yd hitch to Godwin; Godwin stays upright	Complete	Nope
10	Everyone covered, throws it away	Incomplete	Nope
11	Everyone covered, throws it away	Incomplete	Nope
12	5yd hitch to Godwin; Godwin stays upright	Complete	Nope
13	Everyone covered, throws it away	Incomplete	Nope
14	Hit as he throws, Godwin drops	Incomplete	Nope
15	Quick out to motioning Carter, nearly picked, Carter drops	Incomplete	Yes
16	Checkdown to Carter	Complete	Nope
17	Post to Godwin	Complete	Nope
18	Delayed wheel to Gesicki	Complete	Nope
19	Screen to Scott	Complete	Nope

In addition to the Yes/Nope, you might also notice that, of the 16 pass attempts which were not tossed into the stands for lack of an open receiver, 14 of them (87.5 percent) were thrown within five yards of the line of scrimmage. So we have that going for us, which is nice.

In summary, 17 of 19 times Hack did not suck. That's an 89.5 percent did-not-suck rate. Some might argue, on pass #15, which was nearly picked off, but was ultimately dropped by Carter, that Hack was set up to fail by a questionable play design made worse by, to that point in the game, 100 percent of his throws being within five yards of the line of scrimmage. Some might argue that, and Film Room wouldn't disagree.

Fortunately, after narrowly avoiding a killer INT, we went deep on the very next series. This leads Film Room to believe that someone on the coaching staff probably was watching the game.  Though we can't know that for certain, we suggest clinging to it.  Hope is a good thing, Red.  And, really, what more could a fan ask for?

Our Hated Rival's Awful Defense

Indiana's defense isn't horrible. Wait. Let's rephrase that.

Indiana's defense isn't always horrible. Sometimes, yes, it is horrible. Having reviewed its non-FCS snaps, Indiana's defense is actually pretty good about 88.7 percent of the time. On the other 11.3 percent of the snaps, they allow explosive plays which ruin everything. Let's look at some tables of numbers and draw wild conclusions.

Opponent	Expl. Plays Allwd	Expl. Yds Allwd	Total Plays	Awfulness Rate
FIU	7	207	77	9.1%
WKY	7	247	72	9.7%
Wake	7	160	84	8.3%
OSU	11	398	61	18.0%
Average	8	253	73.5	11.3%

As shown in the table above, the Hoosiers give up an explosive play, on average, about eight times per game. During these eight snaps, the Hoosiers blow assignments or what have you, and surrender an average of 31.6 yards. Since opponents run, on average, 73 plays per game against them, these eight snaps calculate to an 11.3 percent awfulness rate.

Last week's game against the Buckeyes underscored this premise. Ohio State ran 61 plays on offense, and totaled 517 yards. That's not good, right? (Not for IU, right.) Ohio State had 11 explosive plays which accounted for 398 of the 517 total yards - 77 percent. On the other 50 plays run by the Buckeyes, they gained 119 yards total - an average of 2.38 yards per play. Strangely, that is really good (for IU's defense. Thanks, Cardale.)

Coincidentally, Penn State's offense functions in much the same manner as IU's defense. Through five games, PSU averages just under six explosive plays per game. Because we aren't good enough to make first downs a habit, we run just under 56 plays per game, on average. So our goodness rate is 10.4 percent. It is science.

Opponent	Expl.Plays Made	Expl.Yds Gained	Total Plays	Goodness Rate
Temple	5	138	50	10.0%
Buffalo	5	130	59	8.5%
Rutgers	8	293	54	14.8%
SDSU	7	235	67	10.4%
Army	4	123	49	8.2%
Average	5.8	183.8	55.8	10.4%

Therefore, friends, if you're expecting to watch Penn State run for 4.4 yards on each tailback carry - whether it is 1st-and-5, or not - that's not who 2015 Penn State is on offense. Nor is it who 2015 Indiana is on defense. Just ask Ezekiel Elliott, who, despite rushing for 274 yards last week on 23 carries, saw 61 percent of his attempts go for five yards or fewer - and 48 percent of them were for three yards or fewer. We need big plays this week (like every week) - round about eight should do the trick. Here's who made them so far this year:

Player	Plays	Yards
Barkley	9	252
Blacknall	2	91
Carter	1	35
Gesicki	1	33
Godwin	5	179
Hackenberg	1	19
Hamilton	1	48
Lynch	4	148
Polk	4	92
Scott	1	22

Hit The Lights

In summary, we've reached three indisputable, incontrovertible conclusions:

1) Third dive is not the charm;

2) Hack is 89.5% good;

3) IU is awful 11.3% of the time.