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Just the Stats: Penn State at Michigan State

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Well, this doesn't look how I would have thought it would.

Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports

Penn St. Nittany Lions (7-4; 4-3 Big Ten East) vs Michigan State Spartans (10-1; 6-1 Big Ten East)

3:30 p.m. ET, November 28, 2015--ESPN
Spartan Stadium (Capacity: 75,005
/ East Lansing, MI)

Penn State Value (Nat'l Rank) Value (Nat'l Rank) Michigan State Advantage
Rushing Offense (ypg) 136.5 (105) 117.8 (15) Rushing Defense (ypg)
Passing Offense (ypg) 201.0 (89) 225.1 (68) Passing Defense (ypg) Push
Pass Efficiency 126.52 (77) 127.12 (69) Pass Efficiency Defense Push
Total Offense (ypg) 337.5 (11) 342.9 (26) Total Defense (ypg)
Scoring Offense (ppg) 24.4 (T-97) 21.5 (32) Scoring Defense (ppg)
Rushing Defense (ypg) 146.3 (42) 157.0 (89) Rushing Offense (ypg) new PSU logo
Passing Defense (ypg) 167.8 (7) 239.1 (51) Passing Offense (ypg) new PSU logo
Pass Efficiency Defense 107.67 (13) 139.83 (42) Pass Efficiency new PSU logo
Total Defense (ypg) 34.1 (14) 396.1 (70) Total Offense (ypg) new PSU logonew PSU logo
Scoring Defense (ppg) 18.6 (18) 31.5 (54) Scoring Offense (ppg) new PSU logo
Net Punting Yds 35.85 (93)
2.0 (123) Punt Return Yds new PSU logo
Punt Return Yds 7.33 (77) 34.57 (116) Net Punting Yds new PSU logo
Kickoff Return Yds 22.5 (39) 21.98 (79) Kickoff Return Defense new PSU logo
Kickoff Return Defense 25.53 (116) 22.05 (47) Kickoff Return Yds
Turnover Margin +.73 (T-15) +1.0 (T-5) Turnover Margin Push
Penalty Yds/Game 40.45 (11) 42.55 (18) Penalty Yds/Game Push
Sacks 4.0/gm (T-1) 1.36/gm (T-28) Sacks Allowed new PSU logo
Sacks Allowed 3.36/gm (T-121)
2.73/gm (T-22)
Sacks
Redzone Offense (%) 92.3% (10)
84.4% (T69)
Redzone Defense (%) new PSU logonew PSU logo
Redzone Defense (%) 90.0% (113)
983.7% (66) Redzone Offense (%)
Redzone TD % 53.85% 65.63%
Redzone TD % Defense Push
Redzone TD % Defense 70.0% 69.77%
Redzone TD %
3rd Down Conv. % 27.6% (126)
36.1% (46)
3rd Down Defense %
3rd Down Defense % 34.9% (T-39)
49.0% (11) 3rd Down Conv. %
4th Down Conv. % 33.3 (T-111) 44.0% (43) 4th Down Defense %
4th Down Defense % 16.7% (1)
40.0% (101) 4th Down Conv. % new PSU logonew PSU logonew PSU logonew PSU logo
1st Downs 178 (T-120) 195 (27) 1st Downs Allowed
1st Downs Allowed 193 (T-18) 240 (T-46) 1st Downs new PSU logo
Time of Possession 29:15 (75)
33:19 (9) Time of Possession

Difference

Difference >25 in National Rank = new PSU logo

Difference >50 in National Rank = new PSU logonew PSU logo

Difference >75 in National Rank = new PSU logonew PSU logonew PSU logo

Difference >100 in National Rank = new PSU logonew PSU logonew PSU logonew PSU logo

Note: The Redzone TD% and Redzone TD% Defense are calculated by me and not ranked by the NCAA. Determining who has the advantage in these categories is strictly my arbitrary judgment.

Quick thoughts: Honestly? Nowhere near as bad as I thought it would be.

Not that I'm anywhere close to being confident, especially since it's in East Lansing, but this Spartan team has been living on the edge all season (and pulling out close wins against less than stellar competition--as well as great teams) and the numbers bear that out.

What do you guys think?