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Penn St. Nittany Lions (5-2; 3-1 Big Ten East) vs Purdue Boilermakers (3-4; 1-3 Big Ten West)
12:00 p.m. ET, October 29, 2016--ABC/ESPN2
Ross-Ade Stadium (Capacity: 62,500 / West Lafayette, IN)
| Penn State | Value (Nat'l Rank) | Value (Nat'l Rank) | Purdue | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing Offense (ypg) | 147.9 (95) | 249.0 (121) | Rushing Defense (ypg) |  |
| Passing Offense (ypg) | 227.1 (74) | 192.0 (24) | Passing Defense (ypg) |
|
| Pass Efficiency | 133.46 (63) | 134.61 (74) | Pass Efficiency Defense | Push |
| Total Offense (ypg) | 375.0 (97) | 441.0 (99) | Total Defense (ypg) | Push |
| Scoring Offense (ppg) | 29.6 (65) | 33.3 (102) | Scoring Defense (ppg) | |
| Rushing Defense (ypg) | 203.0 (95) | 120.3 (116) | Rushing Offense (ypg) | Push |
| Passing Defense (ypg) | 183.0 (17) | 306.0 (16) | Passing Offense (ypg) | Push |
| Pass Efficiency Defense | 118.73 (38) | 116.3 (107) | Pass Efficiency |
|
| Total Defense (ypg) | 386.0 (53) | 426.3 (53) | Total Offense (ypg) | Push |
| Scoring Defense (ppg) | 27.4 (T-64) | 25.6 (88) | Scoring Offense (ppg) | Push |
| Punt Return Defense (ypr) | 7.58 (67) |
7.11 (72) | Punt Return Yds | Push |
| Punt Return Yds | 5.18 (91) | 3.6 (21) | Punt Return Defense (ypr) |
|
| Net Punting Yds | 35.77 (98) | 37.23 (73) | Net Punting Yds | |
| Kickoff Return Yds | 20.52 (75) | 20.35 (57) | Kickoff Return Defense | Push |
| Kickoff Return Defense | 18.15 (22) | 19.16 (96) | Kickoff Return Yds |
|
| Turnover Margin | -.43 (T-97) |
-1.14 (T-120) | Turnover Margin | Push |
| Penalty Yds/Game | 40.71 (T-14) | 39.29 (13) | Penalty Yds/Game | Push |
| Sacks | 3.14/gm (T-17) | 1.57/gm (T-29) | Sacks Allowed | Push |
| Sacks Allowed | 2.14/gm (T-69) |
2.0/gm (T-68) |
Sacks | Push |
| Redzone Offense (%) | 82.8% (T-70) | 86.7% (T-80) |
Redzone Defense (%) | Push |
| Redzone Defense (%) | 89.3% (93) |
65.2% (127) | Redzone Offense (%) | |
| Redzone TD % | 48.28% | 66.67% |
Redzone TD % Defense | |
| Redzone TD % Defense | 60.71% | 47.83% |
Redzone TD % | |
| 3rd Down Conv. % | 25.6% (127) |
50.9% (128) |
3rd Down Defense % | Push |
| 3rd Down Defense % | 38.2% (T-59) |
47.4% (22) | 3rd Down Conv. % | |
| 4th Down Conv. % | 63.6% (T-28) | 100.0% (T-126) | 4th Down Defense % |
|
| 4th Down Defense % | 46.2% (T-45) |
45.5% (88) | 4th Down Conv. % | |
| 1st Downs | 132 (T-107) | 151 (65) | 1st Downs Allowed |
|
| 1st Downs Allowed | 134 (34) | 157 (T-58) | 1st Downs | Push |
| Time of Possession | 26:27 (111) |
29:27 (70) | Time of Possession | |
| Strength of Schedule | 18 | 60 | Strength of Schedule | |
Difference
Difference >25 in National Rank =
Difference >50 in National Rank =
Difference >75 in National Rank =
Difference >100 in National Rank =
Note: All of the above rankings are taken directly from the NCAA except for strength of schedule, which is not ranked by the NCAA and instead taken from S&P (Football Outsiders).
The Redzone TD% and Redzone TD% Defense are calculated by me and not ranked by the NCAA. Determining who has the advantage in these categories is strictly my arbitrary judgment.
Quick thoughts:
There's a lot more pushes up there than I would have expected, but playing some very good defenses (the number 1, 7, 17, 25, 47, 53 and 56 defenses) will do that to an offense--especially one under a first year offensive coordinator. Purdue, on the flip side, has played the number 34, 66, 72, 84, 99 and 106 offenses (EKU, as FCS, isn't ranked)--according to S&P+, we'll be the best offense they've faced to date save for Nebraska, which is two slots above us.
On the flip side, we'll be the best defense they've faced all season - and that's with a season's worth of stats, without Brandon Bell and Jason Cabinda playing much of the season.
Even if we only get what they've given up on average this year (a big if), Penn State should win this going away. It's time to be confident, guys!