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Black Shoe Degenerates Bows Out

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With the last week of the season comes the last set of picks for Black Shoe Degenerates.

NCAA Football: Michigan State at Penn State Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports

Alright folks, it’s been a fun ride. I finished the regular season slightly below last year, but still above .500 overall. There were some high highs, and very low lows, but overall I had fun doing it. I don’t personally make many picks during bowl week, but I do have something prepare for when all pairings are announced. More on tha t when the time comes. As per championship week, there are a few games that intrigue me, but be advised: any postseason play is erratic and highly unpredictable, so proceed at your own risk.

The Picks

Penn State +3 vs Wisconsin - This is totally a homer pick on my end, but there’s data behind the selection. The underdog has gone 4-0-1 ATS in the Big Ten Championship Game to date, and Penn State finds itself in that position this time around. Wisconsin doesn’t make it a habit of beating teams by large scores, especially when they’re of equal or near equal quality. If Wisconsin wins, I do see it being by a field goal. On the other hand, Penn State can turn a small deficit into a big lead in a hurry, and sometimes they can even turn a big deficit into a small one. I’m taking the points.

Temple +4 @ Navy - This is another pick that can be described as “what I hope happens” instead of what I think happens, but I do think Temple has the ability to slow down Navy the way South Florida was able to. They won’t completely stop Navy, as the Midshipmen are a potent team this season (and last), but Temple plays Navy’s game well: They keep the ball for long periods of time, they don’t make many mistakes, and they force you to play a perfect game on offense in order to keep pace. Of the three teams that have been able to beat Temple this year, two did so by scoring in less than a minute. If Temple is able to replicate what South Florida and Air Force did, Navy will be hard pressed to come back and win it.

Oklahoma State +11 @ Oklahoma - Is it me, or is this line being peculiarly stuck at 11 points a sign of something? I’m taking the chance here with Oklahoma State, and hope that they can lose by exactly 10 points to give me the win.

Fun Props

LJ Scott rushing yards: 99.5 - UNDER (59)
Tyler O’Connor completions: 19.5 - UNDER (17)*
Penn State tackles for loss: 4.5 OVER (10)
Penn State FU touchdowns: 1.5 - OVER (2)

Whoo boy! Every prop favoring Penn State went over, and every prop favoring Michigan State went under. Rough day for the guys in green. As per this week:

Wisconsin interceptions: .5
Penn State passing yards: 199.5
Wisconsin rushing yards: 181.5
Saquon Barkley touchdowns: 1.5
Gus Johnson screaming playcalls: 11.5
Amount of people calling Penn State’s win fluky after the fact: ∞.5

Record

Last Week: 2-2
Season: 24-22-1