Alright folks, it’s been a fun ride. I finished the regular season slightly below last year, but still above .500 overall. There were some high highs, and very low lows, but overall I had fun doing it. I don’t personally make many picks during bowl week, but I do have something prepare for when all pairings are announced. More on tha t when the time comes. As per championship week, there are a few games that intrigue me, but be advised: any postseason play is erratic and highly unpredictable, so proceed at your own risk.
Penn State +3 vs Wisconsin - This is totally a homer pick on my end, but there’s data behind the selection. The underdog has gone 4-0-1 ATS in the Big Ten Championship Game to date, and Penn State finds itself in that position this time around. Wisconsin doesn’t make it a habit of beating teams by large scores, especially when they’re of equal or near equal quality. If Wisconsin wins, I do see it being by a field goal. On the other hand, Penn State can turn a small deficit into a big lead in a hurry, and sometimes they can even turn a big deficit into a small one. I’m taking the points.
Temple +4 @ Navy - This is another pick that can be described as “what I hope happens” instead of what I think happens, but I do think Temple has the ability to slow down Navy the way South Florida was able to. They won’t completely stop Navy, as the Midshipmen are a potent team this season (and last), but Temple plays Navy’s game well: They keep the ball for long periods of time, they don’t make many mistakes, and they force you to play a perfect game on offense in order to keep pace. Of the three teams that have been able to beat Temple this year, two did so by scoring in less than a minute. If Temple is able to replicate what South Florida and Air Force did, Navy will be hard pressed to come back and win it.
Oklahoma State +11 @ Oklahoma - Is it me, or is this line being peculiarly stuck at 11 points a sign of something? I’m taking the chance here with Oklahoma State, and hope that they can lose by exactly 10 points to give me the win.
LJ Scott rushing yards: 99.5 - UNDER (59)
Tyler O’Connor completions: 19.5 - UNDER (17)*
Penn State tackles for loss: 4.5 OVER (10)
Penn State FU touchdowns: 1.5 - OVER (2)
Whoo boy! Every prop favoring Penn State went over, and every prop favoring Michigan State went under. Rough day for the guys in green. As per this week:
Wisconsin interceptions: .5
Penn State passing yards: 199.5
Wisconsin rushing yards: 181.5
Saquon Barkley touchdowns: 1.5
Gus Johnson screaming playcalls: 11.5
Amount of people calling Penn State’s win fluky after the fact: ∞.5
Last Week: 2-2