WRESTLING: Way Too Early Look Ahead

Did you enjoy that national championship?  Good, because next season has already begun.  And it's going to be a crazy, crazy season.  A ton of teams will be loaded, and Penn State will have a big challenge on its hands.  Let's take a very early look at how the weights might shape up for the 2016/17 wrestling season.

125 LBS

Rank	Wrestler	Team	Year
1	Gilman	Iowa	SR
2	Tomasello	OHST	JR
3	Youtsey	MICH	SR
4	Peters	UNI	SR
5	Millhof	OU	JR
6	Schram	STAN	JR
7	Cruz	LEH	JR
8	Dance	VT	SR
9	Moisey	WVU	JR
10	Bresser	ORST	JR
11	McGhee	MIZZ	JR
12	Lambert	NEB	SR
13	Rodriguez	NDSU	SR
14	Piccinnini	OKST	FR
15	Macri	CORN	SO
16	Suriano	PSU	FR
17	Rodriguez	SIUE	SR
18	Jeske	ODU	SR
19	Fausz	NCST	SO
20	Oliver	IND	SO

Overview: there are a whopping 9 returning All-Americans, including 1 former champ and 2 finalists.  You also get 3 round of 12 guys, plus 4 more who made the round of 16.  That's 16 wrestlers who started training this week with eyes set on making the podium in St.Louis next March.

Favorites: Gilman (Iowa) and Tomasello (OHST)

Sleepers: Peters (UNI) wasn't the healthiest this year, but still made the podium.  He and Zeke Moisey (WVU) can both put you on your back quickly.

Movers/Newbies: no one's moving into this weight class from above, and there's a chance that Tomasello bumps to 133, though we think he sticks here because that appears to be the best thing for Ohio State.  Oklahoma State will put RSFR Nick Piccinnini on the mat, replacing departed senior Eddie Klimara.  Piccinnini was (17-4) last year during redshirt.  There's one other freshman in the crowded top 20, too.

Penn State: say hello to Nick Suriano, who'll be a true freshman.  He finished his Bergen Catholic (NJ) high school career as an unbeaten 4x state champ.

133 LBS

Rank	Wrestler	Team	Year
1	Clark	Iowa	SR
2	Richards	ILL	SR
3	Montoya	NEB	SR
4	Taylor	WISC	SR
5	Cortez	PSU	JR
6	DiCamillo	UVA	SR
7	Forys	PITT	JR
8	Brock	OKST	SO
9	Morris	NCST	SO
10	Palmer	ORST	SR
11	Kelly	Ohio	SO
12	Alber	UNI	SO
13	Brady	ASU	JR
14	Saavedra	ODU	SO
15	Giraldo	RUT	SO
16	Prince	Navy	FR
17	Synon	MIZZ	SR
18	Headlee	UNC	FR
19	Pletcher	OHST	FR
20	Keener	CMU	SR

Overview: After an annual place among the top of the "toughest weights" ranking, 133 finally cleared out.  We're down to 5 returning All-Americans, 0 champs, 1 finalist, and only 1 R12 and 2 R16.

Favorites: Clark (Iowa), Richards (ILL), Taylor (WISC)

Sleepers: Cortez (PSU), Kaid Brock (OKST) - depending upon his recovery from knee surgery.

Movers/Newbies: We think Ohio State keeps Tomasello at 125, and puts true freshman Luke Pletcher on the mat here at 133.  Other freshman to keep an eye on include Navy's Jared Prince and UNC's Ethan Headlee.

Penn State: say hello to Jered Cortez, a 4x Illinois state champ (Glenbard North), and the 2013 Junior Nationals Freestyle champ.  He transferred to Dear Old State last off-season after one year at Illinois, and went 12-0 unattached in 2015/16.  Here's Jered against Iowa's Cory Clark at Fargo in 2012.

141 LBS

Rank	Wrestler	Team	Year
1	Heil	OKST	JR
2	Meredith	WYO	JR
3	McKenna	STAN	SO
4	Ashnault	RUT	JR
5	Chishko	VT	SO
6	Ward	UNC	SR
7	Jack	NCST	JR
8	Cruz	LEH	SR
9	Gross	SDSU	SO
10	Thorn	MINN	SO
11	Gulibon	PSU	SR
12	Laster	PRIN	SR
13	Manley	MIZZ	SR
14	Bleise	NIU	SO
15	Hayes	OHST	FR
16	Zacherl	CLAR	SO
17	Longo	APST	JR
18	Pongracz	UTC	SR
19	Smith	BUCK	JR
20	Moore	WVU	FR

Overview: this is flipped 133.  Last year 141 was empty, but now, heading into 2016/17, it features 9 past All-Americans, plus three more wrestlers from the R12/R16.

Favorites: Heil (OKST).  Once you get over the fact that he wrestles close matches, you'll notice that he's winning all of them.

Sleepers: take your pick from 2 thru 7.

Movers/Newbies: we have Ohio State letting Micah Jordan bump up to 149lbs (Jordan wrestled freestyle at 154.5 last summer), making way for RSFR teammate Ke-Shawn Hayes, another top-10 recruit.  West Virginia and Sammie Henson have a RSFR to keep an eye on as well, in Keegan Moore.

Penn State: Jimmy will be in his last go.  He's right there with everyone else physically.  Get the mental part squared away, and he'll be on the podium - though it won't be easy to crack.

149 LBS

Rank	Wrestler	Team	Year
1	Retherford	PSU	JR
2	Sorensen	Iowa	JR
3	Mayes	MIZZ	SR
4	Collica	OKST	SR
5	Pantaleo	MICH	JR
6	Oliver	CMU	SO
7	Martinez	BSU	JR
8	Cimato	DREX	SR
9	Finesilver	DUKE	JR
10	Lugo	BORO	SO
11	Lopez	BUCK	SR
12	Tsirtsis	JNW	SR
13	Jeffries	OU	SO
14	Jordan	OHST	SO
15	Kolodzik	PRIN	FR
16	Clagon	RID	JR
17	Short	MINN	JR
18	Theobold	RUT	SR
19	Thomsen	UNI	FR
20	Gardner	LEH	JR

Overview: this is the Bataan Death March weight class.  There are 9 past All-Americans, 4 blood round guys, and 3 round of 16 guys.  Two champs (Zain and Tsirtsis), plus a returning finalist (Sorensen).  The field is packed with proven talent.

Favorites: Zain

Sleepers: none - not when Zain bonuses the field.

Movers/Newbies: here you'll find Micah Jordan, as well as super-frosh Matt Kolodzik (Princeton).  Another freshman to look for will be Max Thomsen, who's under the expert tutelage of Doug Schwab at Northern Iowa.

Penn State: sure glad we've got Zain.

157 LBS

Rank	Wrestler	Team	Year
1	Nolf	PSU	FR
2	Palacio	CORN	SR
3	Walsh	RID	JR
4	Smith	OKST	SO
5	Murphy	MICH	SR
6	Minotti	LEH	SR
7	Berger	NEB	SO
8	Cottrell	WVU	SR
9	Lavallee	MIZZ	SR
10	Matthews	BORO	JR
11	Steiert	UNI	SO
12	Scheidel	COLU	SR
13	Lewis	RUT	SR
14	Kemerer	Iowa	FR
15	Stroker	MINN	FR
16	Ryan	OHST	SO
17	Shakur	UTC	SO
18	Staudenmayer	BROW	SR
19	Brill	JNW	SO
20	Bethea	Upenn	SO

Overview: Yes, we moved Isaiah Martinez to 165lbs.  He wrestled there during his redshirt year...three seasons ago.  It's time for him to bump up.  But even with him gone, 157 returns 6 All-Americans, plus 6 more from the R12/R16 rounds.  It's not an easy weight class.

Favorites: Nolf

Sleepers: Palacio (Cornell).  He does weird stuff, and things to irritate you.  He's also pretty good.

Movers/Newbies: I-Mar to 165.  Plus three newbies: Bryce Brill, a top recruit a few years ago who'll be returning from injury last year, as well as Fredy Stroker, Minnesota (if Jake Short stays at 149) and Michael Kemerer, Iowa (if Brandon Sorensen stays at 149).

Penn State: Jason Nolf finished second, posting a 34-2 record with 30 bonus point wins.  Not too bad.  Kinda excited to see what he does as a sophomore.

165 LBS

Rank	Wrestler	Team	Year
1	Martinez	ILL	JR
2	Jordan	WISC	SR
3	Lewis	MIZZ	SO
4	Massa	MICH	FR
5	McFadden	VT	SO
6	Rogers	OKST	SO
7	Rohskopf	NCST	SR
8	Wilson	STAN	SR
9	Moore	UNI	SR
10	Glass	OU	SR
11	Gobbo	HARV	SR
12	Preisch	LEH	SO
13	Joseph	PSU	FR
14	White	OHST	FR
15	Early	MINN	FR
16	White	COLU	JR
17	Wiercioch	PITT	JR
18	Marinelli	Iowa	FR
19	Williams	NEB	FR
20	Reese	Ohio	SO

Overview: even with I-Mar coming up to 165, this weight boasts just 4 past All-Americans, and 4 more from the R12/R16 group.  Meaning, prepare for a wild rankings season.

Favorites: Martinez (ILL), Jordan (WISC)

Sleepers: Logan Massa (MICH)

Movers/Newbies: I-Mar bumps here, while Bo Jordan bumps out (to 174).  Chandler Rogers (OKST) comes down here from 174, because that's the Okie State way.  The real noise, though, comes from a mess of freshman, topped by Michigan's Logan Massa, who beat a handful of national qualifiers last year while redshirting, and lost only to king ape Alex Dieringer (an 8-2 decision in the Scuffle final).  Top redshirt Larry Early gets this spot from us in Minnesota's lineup, while incoming freshman Alex Marinelli does the same for Iowa.  Ohio State will likely have a true freshman here, top-5 recruit Isaiah White, from powerhouse high school OPRF in Illinois.  White won Fargo two years ago over PSU's Vincenzo Joseph.  H/T to bveo for the reminder about White.

Penn State: the Nittany Lions will be wrestling this weight off between Geno Morelli, Garett Hammond, and super-frosh Vincenzo Joseph, who went a perfect 8-0 with 2 pins, 5 techs, and 1 major during his redshirt campaign.  Joseph likes to score points, and Cael likes guys who like to score points - so we're penciling him into the lineup.  Here he is last June, just graduated from high school, beating 2x All-American Anthony Ashnault at Junior World Freestyle trials.

174 LBS

Rank	Wrestler	Team	Year
1	Nickal	PSU	SO
2	Jordan	OHST	JR
3	Epperly	VT	JR
4	Realbuto	CORN	SR
5	Crutchmer	OKST	SR
6	Jackson	IND	SR
7	Meyer	Iowa	SR
8	Valencia	ASU	FR
9	Weatherspoon	ISU	SR
10	Ramos	UNC	JR
11	Bernstein	Navy	JR
12	Reed	OU	SR
13	Brunson	ILL	SR
14	Barnes	NEB	SR
15	Schleifer	PRIN	JR
16	Mahomes	MICH	JR
17	Kee	APST	JR
18	Wolf	LEH	SO
19	Wanzek	MINN	JR
20	Johnson	HARV	SO

Overview: 9 past All-Americans, and 4 from the R12/16 pool.  It'll be another wild year at 174.  This is a really deep, really talented weight class.

Favorites: Nickal (PSU), Jordan (OHST), Epperly (VT)

Sleepers: take your pick.  There's a bunch of good ones.

Movers/Newbies: So Bo Jordan gets to end his hunger strike, and bumps here from 165.  Reigning champion Myles Martin moves to 184.  Cornell's Brian Realbuto makes it back from knee surgery, and if Michigan's Davonte Mahomes doesn't - and he takes a redshirt instead - then erase his name and put teammate Taylor Massa there instead.  Okie State's Crutchmer also returns from injury.  The big newcomer is Anthony Valencia, last year's top recruit, and a Junior World team member.  He has an awfully good double leg.

Penn State: Chin up, and keep throwing, Bo.

184 LBS

Rank	Wrestler	Team	Year
1	Dean	CORN	SR
2	Dudley	NEB	SR
3	Martin	OHST	SO
4	Renda	NCST	SR
5	Boyd	OKST	SR
6	Miklus	MIZZ	JR
7	Brooks	Iowa	SR
8	Zavatsky	VT	SO
9	Abounader	MICH	SR
10	Dechow	ODU	SR
11	Valencia	ASU	FR
12	Sleigh	BUCK	JR
13	Gravina	RUT	JR
14	McCutcheon	PSU	JR
15	Ellingwood	CMU	JR
16	Schneider	BING	JR
17	Griego	ORST	SO
18	Reyes	NCO	SR
19	Krohn	STAN	JR
20	Christensen	WISC	SO

Overview: 8 returning All-Americans, including both finalists, plus three R12 guys and one from R16.  So this weight eases up a bit - but only just a bit.

Favorites: Dean (Cornell), Dudley (NEB) - especially if Dudley makes another big leap like he did last off-season.

Sleepers: Boyd (OKST) really came on last year, and kept it going.

Movers/Newbies: we've bumped Myles Martin here from 174, because Bo Jordan has to eat at some point, and because Martin wrestled 182 freestyle as a high schooler.  The lone newbie in our ranking is Zahid Valencia, Arizona State.  Yes, the brother of Anthony.  Zahid is also pretty good.  One newbie just outside the ranking is Minnesota's Steveson (assuming he cuts to 184).  Goldy's always pretty good at the big boy weights.

Penn State: for the next several months we'll hear stories about Shakur Rasheed coming up here from 165.  And at 6'3", this weight certainly makes more sense for Shakur than 165lbs.  But he'll have to beat Mouse for the spot, who - before more injuries - had made huge strides from his RSFR year, and had the clear look of a podium placer.  It's not going to be easy to take this spot from Mouse.

197 LBS

Rank	Wrestler	Team	Year
1	Cox	MIZZ	SR
2	Pfarr	MINN	SR
3	Downey	ISU	JR
4	Haught	VT	JR
5	Harner	PRIN	SR
6	Weigel	OKST	SO
7	Wolfe	RID	SR
8	Studebaker	NEB	SR
9	Scott	NIU	SR
10	Conel	KENT	SO
11	Wheeler	CLST	SO
12	Rotert	SDSU	JR
13	Smith	WVU	JR
14	Boykin	NCST	JR
15	Boykin	UTC	SR
16	Haas	LEH	SR
17	Mattiace	Upenn	SR
18	Moore	OHST	FR
19	Hines	AFA	SR
20	Johnson	OU	SR

Overview: 5 returning All-Americans, including 2x champ J'Den Cox, plus 4 R12 wrestlers and a pair from the round of 16.

Favorites: Cox

Sleepers: Pfarr (MINN), who improved dramatically year-to-year.  Maybe he can make another leap.

Movers/Newbies: we don't have anyone moving in or out.  And it's pretty hard for a freshman to bust onto the scene up at the big boy weights - you get a lot stronger between ages 18 and 22.  But two freshmen to keep an eye on will be Kollin Moore, Ohio State, and Lance Benick, Arizona State.

Penn State: we don't know for certain just yet, but the favorite to replace Morg is Anthony Cassar, a sophomore.  Here's what we know about Cassar: 1) he's not been wrestling for very long, picking up the sport in high school.  2) he won the NJ state championship as a senior, despite never qualifying for the tournament before that (the only NJ wrestler in history to pull that off).  3) he made the US Junior World Freestyle team (211lbs) during his true freshman season.  Yes, it was a small field, but the field did include Oklahoma State's Preston Weigel, who just missed the podium two weeks ago (losing in the round of 12), and UNC's Chip Ness, who also won a match at NCAAs.  4) Cassar injured his shoulder at Junior Worlds, placing 10th, and had surgery last summer/fall.

Those are the objective facts.  Here are the inferences we might draw: 1) Cassar wants to be great, and will put in the hard work to become great.  2) he's athletic.  Watch the video below (from team trials); the kid can move his feet.  3) he doesn't have a ton of wrestling habits - good or bad - because he's still (relatively) new to wrestling.

In other words, he's an athletic, purpose-driven slab of marble getting sculpted by Cael, Casey, Morg, and Varner.  That's pretty solid reasoning for hope at 197 this year.

285 LBS

Rank	Wrestler	Team	Year
1	Snyder	OHST	JR
2	Coon	MICH	SR
3	Walz	VT	SR
4	Dhesi	ORST	JR
5	Medbery	WISC	SR
6	Kroells	MINN	SR
7	Harms	WYO	SR
8	Hall	ASU	SO
9	Stoll	Iowa	SO
10	Larson	OU	SR
11	Butler	STAN	JR
12	Nevills	PSU	SO
13	Haines	LHU	SO
14	Black	ILL	JR
15	Dejournette	APST	SR
16	Vollaro	LEH	SR
17	Jensen	NEB	SR
18	Johnson	UTC	SR
19	Peck	UMD	SR
20	Kosoy	NCST	SR

Overview: 6 All-Americans, including Kyle Snyder (probably), plus 5 wrestlers from R12/R16.

Favorites: Snyder (OHST), if he returns.  Walz, if he doesn't.

Sleepers: there are some pretty good heavies out there, who actually try to score points.

Movers/Newbies: Conor Medbery (WISC) returns from Oly redshirt, and he'll be fun to watch.  Iowa's Sam Stoll will be back from surgery, and Thomas Haines should take the mat for Lock Haven.

Penn State: we'll also get to see what Nick Nevills can do when he has more than 2.5 weeks of wrestling under his belt, and when he's not coming off of 18 months missed for two different surgeries.  I think it could be pretty good.

Overall

If you're buying the lineups/rankings, then you're in for a ridiculous - ridiculous - 2016/17 wrestling season.  Here's how the projected lineups for the top teams shake out.  Past AAs are bolded.

WT	PSU	IOWA	OHST	OKST	VT
125	Suriano	Gilman	Tomasello	Piccinnini	Dance
133	Cortez	Clark	Pletcher	Brock	Norstrem
141	Gulibon	Carton	Hayes	Heil	Chishko
149	Retherford	Sorensen	Jordan	Collica	Mastriani
157	Nolf	Kemerer	Ryan	Smith
165	Joseph	Marinelli	White	Rogers	McFadden
174	Nickal	Meyer	Jordan	Crutchmer	Epperly
184	McCutcheon	Brooks	Martin	Boyd	Zavatsky
197	Cassar	Holloway	Moore	Weigel	Haught
285	Nevills	Stoll	Snyder		Walz

Ohio State would return 4 All-Americans, including three (Tomasello, Martin, Snyder) who have already won individual championships.  That's a pretty good start.  They also have Micah Jordan, who finished a "disappointing" R12 in his first go.  And to that mix, they add several top recruits: Pletcher (or Rodriguez) at 133; Ke-Shawn Hayes at 141; Isaiah White at 165; and Kollin Moore at 197.  The Buckeyes will be loaded.

Not to be outdone, Oklahoma State will enter 2016/17 with five returning AAs, two round of 12 guys (Rogers/Weigel), plus top recruits Piccinnini and Kaid Brock (who lit up 133 before a knee injury as a true frosh).  The only hole appears to be heavyweight - and that's a spot that OKST has taken to the tournament for 27 straight years or so.  Expect John Smith to get it filled.

Virginia Tech returns...wait for it...six All-Americans, plus two guys (Zavatsky and Mastriani) from the R12/R16 pool.  The Hokies could pretty easily have 8 All-Americans next season.  Walz and Epperly could make the finals.  Dance and Zavatsky seem to have that type of ability, too.  But even if they can't, the Hokies will be a murderous dual meet squad.

Iowa knows they already have 3 national finalists, and believes they could have as many as 5.  With newcomers Kemerer and Marinelli, and a healthy Sam Stoll, the Hawkeyes will expect to post 7-8 All-Americans next year, too.

Oh by the way?  Cornell, NC State, Illinois, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Lehigh, Michigan, and Iowa State - among others -  each return multiple All-Americans to their lineups.

Next season, friends, is gonna be wild.