clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

Black Shoe Degenerates Season 3: Brand New Picks and Last Season’s Results

New, 23 comments

Welcome to a new season of Black Shoe Degenerates, a place for all of your gambling discussion.

NCAA Men's Final Four Semifinal - Villanova v Oklahoma Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images

Welcome to season three of Black Shoe Degenerates. I joined the fray last year and helped Matt D. provide you with #Hot #Picks for the best games every week. With Matt gone, I’ll be taking the reins on the series. I’m open for suggestions on things you’d like to see here, so please drop those in the comments.

Last Season’s Results

I didn’t share my results last season, but I did keep track of them. I went 44-34-1 last season, good for a .563 win rate. For an amateur, that’s not too bad (the professional services offer between 60% and 75% success rate). However, as you can see from the record, that’s 79 games picked. It may be my favorite number, but I’m not looking to pick as many games this season. Instead of picking 5-6 games per week, I’ll be looking to pick between 3 and 4 games.

Also, I’ll be posting my weekly and total record each week, that way you can make fun of my horrible picks in real time.

The Picks

Without further ado, here are these week’s picks:

Hawaii + 40.5 @ Michigan - I don’t doubt that Michigan will be a pristine team this season. With their returning talent and experience, it’s no surprise many people are picking them to win the Big Ten. However, this is the first game of the season, with a new Quarterback, and 41 points is a lot of points. The line opened at 42.5, and after Hawaii’s game against Cal last week, Vegas took down the line and re-released it at 40.

I’m picking Hawaii here because, even at the lower 40.5 number, it’s going to be incredibly hard for Michigan to 1) score 41+ points and 2) prevent Hawaii from scoring at all. A single touchdown on Hawaii’s end forces Michigan to score 48+ to cover. I’m taking at least one Hawaii score in the game.

Houston/Oklahoma OVER 68 - Both Oklahoma and Houston return a ton of talent on offense. Both teams also love to score at a blazing rate. Expect a lot of fireworks early, and don’t be surprised if these teams eclipse this total midway through the third quarter.

Fresno State +28 @ Nebraska - Like Michigan, I don’t think that Nebraska can both score and prevent Fresno State from scoring enough to cover this four touchdown spread. Nebraska should be much improved from last season, at least on offense. Defense might take a few more games to come to form.

Last Week’s Record: N/A
Season Record: 0 - 0