Penn State Nittany Lions (2-1, 0-0 Big Ten East) at Michigan Wolverines (3-0, 0-0 Big Ten East)
3:30 pm ET, September 24, 2016 - ABC
Michigan Stadium (Capacity: 109,901 / Ann Arbor, MI)
| Penn State | Value (Nat'l Rank) | Value (Nat'l Rank) | Michigan | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing Offense (ypg) | 111.7 (113) | 140.0 (57) | Rushing Defense (ypg) |
|
| Passing Offense (ypg) | 276.0 (T-30) | 156.0 (16) | Passing Defense (ypg) | Push |
| Pass Efficiency | 151.95 (41) | 102.8 (24) | Pass Efficiency Defense | Push |
| Total Offense (ypg) | 387.7 (83) | 296.0 (23) | Total Defense (ypg) |
|
| Scoring Offense (ppg) | 35.3 (T-49) | 15.0 (18) | Scoring Defense (ppg) | |
| Rushing Defense (ypg) | 176.3 (92) | 197.7 (52) | Rushing Offense (ypg) | |
| Passing Defense (ypg) | 168.7 (22) | 254.3 (T-47) | Passing Offense (ypg) |  |
| Pass Efficiency Defense | 122.6 (61) | 163.18 (21) | Pass Efficiency | |
| Total Defense (ypg) | 345.0 (46) | 452.0 (T-45) | Total Offense (ypg) | Push |
| Scoring Defense (ppg) | 27.3 (T-77) | 53.0 (4) | Scoring Offense (ppg) |
|
| Net Punting Yds | 39.79 (39) |
22.89 (6) | Punt Return Yds | |
| Punt Return Yds | 6.36 (74) | 28.2 (125) | Net Punting Yds |
|
| Kickoff Return Yds | 21.62 (61) | 19.5 (47) | Kickoff Return Defense | Push |
| Kickoff Return Defense | 30.0 (122) | 19.0 (T-90) | Kickoff Return Yds | |
| Turnover Margin | -.67 (T-90) | +.67 (T-35) | Turnover Margin |
|
| Penalty Yds/Game | 50.67 (44) | 31.33 (7) | Penalty Yds/Game | |
| Sacks | 3.33/gm (T-17) | 1.67/gm (T-49) | Sacks Allowed | |
| Sacks Allowed | 1.67/gm (T-49) |
3.67/gm (T-11) |
Sacks | |
| Redzone Offense (%) | 81.3% (76) |
33.3% (1) |
Redzone Defense (%) |
|
| Redzone Defense (%) | 92.3% (T-93) |
88.9% (T-46) | Redzone Offense (%) | |
| Redzone TD % | 50.0% | 33.33% |
Redzone TD % Defense | |
| Redzone TD % Defense | 69.23% | 66.67% |
Redzone TD % | |
| 3rd Down Conv. % | 27.3% (118) |
10.5% (1) |
3rd Down Defense % |
|
| 3rd Down Defense % | 28.6% (27) |
48.8% (28) | 3rd Down Conv. % | Push |
| 4th Down Conv. % | 75.0% (T-29) | 37.5% (35) | 4th Down Defense % | Push |
| 4th Down Defense % | 50.0% (T-51) |
75.0% (T-25) | 4th Down Conv. % | |
| 1st Downs | 60 (T-66) | 46 (T-32) | 1st Downs Allowed | |
| 1st Downs Allowed | 48 (T-38) | 69 (T-36) | 1st Downs | Push |
| Time of Possession | 26:42 (101) |
31:18 (48) | Time of Possession |
|
Difference
Difference >25 in National Rank =
Difference >50 in National Rank =
Difference >75 in National Rank =
Difference >100 in National Rank =
Note: The Redzone TD% and Redzone TD% Defense are calculated by me and not ranked by the NCAA. Determining who has the advantage in these categories is strictly my arbitrary judgment.
Quick thoughts:
Yes, it's way too early, but since it's Big Ten season, I figured I'd start too early.
I have to say, I was surprised there weren't more three- and four-Michigan logos here. The Wolverines are much better on offense in 2016 than they were headed into this matchup last season, but their defense isn't quite as good (it was a killer last season). That bodes not horribly.
Also, with how good (save last week's fluke) Penn State has been on special teams, I kind of expected more of a PSU swing in those categories--but those logos belie the earliness of this post. Penn State has had only four kickoffs returned--so that 122 ranking is a little inflated, since they've kicked off at least 14 more times than that. Similarly, punt return defense hasn't been something I track on here--I compare punt returns to punting itself instead--but PSU's punt return D has been stellar (when Blake Gillikin has allowed punts to be returned; only 3 have been returned, for an average of 1 yard) and they are 15th. Michigan, on the other hand, is 121st in punt return defense, but it's only because they've had 4 punt returns to defend, and they've averaged 17.5. Let's go, John Reid.
As for something else that stood out? Michigan's red zone defense. On paper, 33.33% is a great red zone defense number--but their opponents have only been in the red zone three times. They've allowed their opponents to score from outside the redzone, so that seems to be a key here.
What say you guys?