clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

Just the Stats: No. 2 Penn State vs No. 19 Michigan

New, comments

After the BYE week, the Wolverines come to town to play under the lights in front of 110k wearing white!

NCAA Football: Penn State at Michigan Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

Penn St. Nittany Lions (6-0; 3-0 Big Ten East) vs Michigan Wolverines (5-1; 2-1 Big Ten East)

7:30 p.m. ET, October 21, 2017--ABC

Beaver Stadium (Capacity: 106,572 / University Park, PA)

Penn State Value (Nat'l Rank) Value (Nat'l Rank) Michigan Advantage
Rushing Offense (ypg) 165.0 (66) 85.8 (6) Rushing Defense (ypg) Michigan logoMichigan logo
Passing Offense (ypg) 291.2 (22) 138.0 (3) Passing Defense (ypg) Push
Pass Efficiency 153.85 (20) 88.85 (1) Pass Efficiency Defense Push
Total Offense (ypg) 456.2 (33) 223.8 (1) Total Defense (ypg) Michigan logo
Scoring Offense (ppg) 39.7 (16) 14.7 (8) Scoring Defense (ppg) Push
Rushing Defense (ypg) 117.3 (24) 185.0 (49) Rushing Offense (ypg) new PSU logo
Passing Defense (ypg) 167.8 (9) 191.3 (94) Passing Offense (ypg) new PSU logonew PSU logonew PSU logo
Pass Efficiency Defense 92.21 (3) 114.41 (109) Pass Efficiency new PSU logonew PSU logonew PSU logonew PSU logo
Total Defense (ypg) 285.2 (9) 376.3 (86) Total Offense (ypg) new PSU logonew PSU logonew PSU logo
Scoring Defense (ppg) 9.0 (1) 27.2 (79) Scoring Offense (ppg) new PSU logonew PSU logonew PSU logo
Punt Return Defense (ypr) 1.29 (12) 8.65 (49) Punt Return Yds new PSU logo
Punt Return Yds 15.75 (12) 8.00 (T - 72) Punt Return Defense (ypr) new PSU logonew PSU logo
Net Punting Yds 42.37 (10) 42.25 (14) Net Punting Yds Push
Kickoff Return Yds 30.89 (1) 13.92 (2) Kickoff Return Defense Push
Kickoff Return Defense 18.63 (40) 18.5 (104) Kickoff Return Yds new PSU logonew PSU logo
Turnover Margin +2.0 (2) -.50 (T - 95) Turnover Margin new PSU logonew PSU logonew PSU logo
Passes Had Intercepted 4 (T - 40) 5 (T - 66) Passes Intercepted new PSU logo
Passes Intercepted 9 (T - 12) 6 (T - 76) Passes Had Intercepted new PSU logonew PSU logo
Penalty Yds/Game 38.67 (18) 74.33 (117) Penalty Yds/Game new PSU logonew PSU logonew PSU logo
Sacks 2.83 (T - 19) 2.67 (T - 101) Sacks Allowed new PSU logonew PSU logonew PSU logo
Sacks Allowed 2.67 (T - 101) 3.33 (T - 6) Sacks Michigan logoMichigan logoMichigan logo
Tackles for Loss (tpg) 8.5 (4) 7.17 (T - 112) Tackles for Loss Allowed (tpg) new PSU logonew PSU logonew PSU logonew PSU logo
Tackles for Loss Allowed (tpg) 8.33 (121) 7.7 (T - 18) Tackles for Loss (tpg) Michigan logoMichigan logoMichigan logoMichigan logo
Redzone Offense (%) 85.2% (57) 83.3% (T - 67) Redzone Defense (%) Push
Redzone Defense (%) 60.0% (4) 94.4% (10) Redzone Offense (%) Push
Redzone TD % 70.37% 58.33% Redzone TD % Defense new PSU logo
Redzone TD % Defense 40.00% 33.33% Redzone TD % new PSU logo
3rd Down Conv. % 37.8% (77) 20.5% (1) 3rd Down Defense % Michigan logoMichigan logoMichigan logo
3rd Down Defense % 34.0% (T-41) 31.5% (116) 3rd Down Conv. % new PSU logonew PSU logo
4th Down Conv. % 62.5% (T - 44) 33.3% (T - 18) 4th Down Defense % Michigan logo
4th Down Defense % 60.0% (T - 87) 100.0% (T - 1) 4th Down Conv. % Michigan logoMichigan logoMichigan logo
1st Downs 129 (T - 70) 73 (2) 1st Downs Allowed Michigan logoMichigan logo
1st Downs Allowed 102 (19) 107 (110) 1st Downs new PSU logonew PSU logonew PSU logo
Time of Possession 29:55 (63) 33:12 (11) Time of Possession Michigan logoMichigan logo
Strength of Schedule 44 24 Strength of Schedule Push

Difference >25 in National Rank = new PSU logo

Difference >50 in National Rank = new PSU logonew PSU logo

Difference >75 in National Rank = new PSU logonew PSU logonew PSU logo

Difference >100 in National Rank =new PSU logonew PSU logonew PSU logonew PSU logo

Note:

All of the above rankings are taken directly from the NCAA except for strength of schedule, which is not ranked by the NCAA and instead taken from S&P+.

The Redzone TD% and Redzone TD% Defense are calculated by me and not ranked by the NCAA. Determining who has the advantage in these categories is strictly my arbitrary judgment.

Quick thoughts:

This is basically what I expected. Both defenses are very, very good; but Penn State’s offense is just better than Michigan’s, and so matches up ok. Plus, being in State College, at night, in a white out, and the edge goes to the Nittany Lions.

Special teams, turnovers and penalties are also heavily in favor of the Lions, and those sorts of metrics also tend to favor the home team in big matchups like this.

What say you all?