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Penn St. Nittany Lions (6-0; 3-0 Big Ten East) vs Michigan Wolverines (5-1; 2-1 Big Ten East)
7:30 p.m. ET, October 21, 2017--ABC
Beaver Stadium (Capacity: 106,572 / University Park, PA)
| Penn State | Value (Nat'l Rank) | Value (Nat'l Rank) | Michigan | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing Offense (ypg) | 165.0 (66) | 85.8 (6) | Rushing Defense (ypg) |
|
| Passing Offense (ypg) | 291.2 (22) | 138.0 (3) | Passing Defense (ypg) | Push |
| Pass Efficiency | 153.85 (20) | 88.85 (1) | Pass Efficiency Defense | Push |
| Total Offense (ypg) | 456.2 (33) | 223.8 (1) | Total Defense (ypg) | |
| Scoring Offense (ppg) | 39.7 (16) | 14.7 (8) | Scoring Defense (ppg) | Push |
| Rushing Defense (ypg) | 117.3 (24) | 185.0 (49) | Rushing Offense (ypg) |  |
| Passing Defense (ypg) | 167.8 (9) | 191.3 (94) | Passing Offense (ypg) |
|
| Pass Efficiency Defense | 92.21 (3) | 114.41 (109) | Pass Efficiency |
|
| Total Defense (ypg) | 285.2 (9) | 376.3 (86) | Total Offense (ypg) |
|
| Scoring Defense (ppg) | 9.0 (1) | 27.2 (79) | Scoring Offense (ppg) |
|
| Punt Return Defense (ypr) | 1.29 (12) | 8.65 (49) | Punt Return Yds | |
| Punt Return Yds | 15.75 (12) | 8.00 (T - 72) | Punt Return Defense (ypr) |
|
| Net Punting Yds | 42.37 (10) | 42.25 (14) | Net Punting Yds | Push |
| Kickoff Return Yds | 30.89 (1) | 13.92 (2) | Kickoff Return Defense | Push |
| Kickoff Return Defense | 18.63 (40) | 18.5 (104) | Kickoff Return Yds |
|
| Turnover Margin | +2.0 (2) | -.50 (T - 95) | Turnover Margin |
|
| Passes Had Intercepted | 4 (T - 40) | 5 (T - 66) | Passes Intercepted | |
| Passes Intercepted | 9 (T - 12) | 6 (T - 76) | Passes Had Intercepted |
|
| Penalty Yds/Game | 38.67 (18) | 74.33 (117) | Penalty Yds/Game |
|
| Sacks | 2.83 (T - 19) | 2.67 (T - 101) | Sacks Allowed |
|
| Sacks Allowed | 2.67 (T - 101) | 3.33 (T - 6) | Sacks |
|
| Tackles for Loss (tpg) | 8.5 (4) | 7.17 (T - 112) | Tackles for Loss Allowed (tpg) |
|
| Tackles for Loss Allowed (tpg) | 8.33 (121) | 7.7 (T - 18) | Tackles for Loss (tpg) |
|
| Redzone Offense (%) | 85.2% (57) | 83.3% (T - 67) | Redzone Defense (%) | Push |
| Redzone Defense (%) | 60.0% (4) | 94.4% (10) | Redzone Offense (%) | Push |
| Redzone TD % | 70.37% | 58.33% | Redzone TD % Defense | |
| Redzone TD % Defense | 40.00% | 33.33% | Redzone TD % | |
| 3rd Down Conv. % | 37.8% (77) | 20.5% (1) | 3rd Down Defense % |
|
| 3rd Down Defense % | 34.0% (T-41) | 31.5% (116) | 3rd Down Conv. % |
|
| 4th Down Conv. % | 62.5% (T - 44) | 33.3% (T - 18) | 4th Down Defense % | |
| 4th Down Defense % | 60.0% (T - 87) | 100.0% (T - 1) | 4th Down Conv. % |
|
| 1st Downs | 129 (T - 70) | 73 (2) | 1st Downs Allowed |
|
| 1st Downs Allowed | 102 (19) | 107 (110) | 1st Downs |
|
| Time of Possession | 29:55 (63) | 33:12 (11) | Time of Possession |
|
| Strength of Schedule | 44 | 24 | Strength of Schedule | Push |
Difference >25 in National Rank =
Difference >50 in National Rank =
Difference >75 in National Rank =
Difference >100 in National Rank =
Note:
All of the above rankings are taken directly from the NCAA except for strength of schedule, which is not ranked by the NCAA and instead taken from S&P+.
The Redzone TD% and Redzone TD% Defense are calculated by me and not ranked by the NCAA. Determining who has the advantage in these categories is strictly my arbitrary judgment.
Quick thoughts:
This is basically what I expected. Both defenses are very, very good; but Penn State’s offense is just better than Michigan’s, and so matches up ok. Plus, being in State College, at night, in a white out, and the edge goes to the Nittany Lions.
Special teams, turnovers and penalties are also heavily in favor of the Lions, and those sorts of metrics also tend to favor the home team in big matchups like this.
What say you all?