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#12 Penn State Nittany Lions (9-3; 6-3 Big Ten East) vs #14 Kentucky Wildcats (9-3; 5-3 SEC East)
1 p.m. ET, January 1, 2019--ABC
Camping World Stadium (Capacity: 60,219 / Orlando, FL)
| Penn State | Value (Nat'l Rank) | Value (Nat'l Rank) | Kentucky | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing Offense (ypg) | 208.6 (30) | 150.8 (50) | Rushing Defense (ypg) | Push |
| Passing Offense (ypg) | 215.8 (77) | 181.3 (17) | Passing Defense (ypg) |
|
| Pass Efficiency | 132.03 (75) | 118.88 (33) | Pass Efficiency Defense | |
| Total Offense (ypg) | 424.3 (46) | 332.22 (22) | Total Defense (ypg) | Push |
| Scoring Offense (ppg) | 34.6 (T - 30) | 16.3 (8) | Scoring Defense (ppg) | Push |
| Rushing Defense (ypg) | 168.4 (70) | 201.3 (38) | Rushing Offense (ypg) | |
| Passing Defense (ypg) | 186.5 (22) | 164.8 (115) | Passing Offense (ypg) |
|
| Pass Efficiency Defense | 105.28 (8) | 134.29 (64) | Pass Efficiency |
|
| Total Defense (ypg) | 354.9 (37) | 366.2 (100) | Total Offense (ypg) |
|
| Scoring Defense (ppg) | 20.0 (20) | 26.6 (T - 85) | Scoring Offense (ppg) |
|
| Punt Return Defense (ypr) | 6.14 (40) | 10.00 (53) | Punt Return Yds | Push |
| Punt Return Yds | 8.68 (67) | 13.06 (120) | Punt Return Defense (ypr) |
|
| Net Punting Yds | 37.36 (67) | 39.39 (24) | Net Punting Yds | |
| Kickoff Return Yds | 24.56 (13) | 17.73 (16) | Kickoff Return Defense | Push |
| Kickoff Return Defense | 22.11 (97) | 21.58 (48) | Kickoff Return Yds | |
| Turnover Margin | +0.08 (T - 58) | +.00 (T - 68) | Turnover Margin | Push |
| Passes Had Intercepted | 7 (T - 36) | 8 (T - 88) | Passes Intercepted |
|
| Passes Intercepted | 13 (T - 28) | 10 (T - 61) | Passes Had Intercepted |
|
| Penalty Yds/Game | 43.92 (23) | 57.83 (80) | Penalty Yds/Game |
|
| Sacks | 3.58 (2) | 2.00 (T - 53) | Sacks Allowed |
|
| Sacks Allowed | 2.08 (T - 57) | 2.67 (T - 30) | Sacks | |
| Tackles for Loss (tpg) | 8.3 (4) | 6.0 (T - 67) | Tackles for Loss Allowed (tpg) |
|
| Tackles for Loss Allowed (tpg) | 5.0 (T - 26) | 6.5 (T - 48) | Tackles for Loss (tpg) | Push |
| Redzone Offense (%) | 92.3% (6) | 76.5% (17) | Redzone Defense (%) | Push |
| Redzone Defense (%) | 71.9% (T - 4) | 79.4% (100) | Redzone Offense (%) |
|
| Redzone TD % | 75.00% | 47.06% | Redzone TD % Defense | Push |
| Redzone TD % Defense | 59.38% | 58.82% | Redzone TD % | |
| 3rd Down Conv. % | 37.9% (76) | 39.0% (67) | 3rd Down Defense % | Push |
| 3rd Down Defense % | 34.5% (29) | 41.5% (49) | 3rd Down Conv. % | Push |
| 4th Down Conv. % | 53.3% (T - 67) | 35.3% (8) | 4th Down Defense % |
|
| 4th Down Defense % | 42.3% (25) | 60.0% (T - 32) | 4th Down Conv. % | Push |
| 1st Downs | 257 (T - 62) | 206 (T - 13) | 1st Downs Allowed | |
| 1st Downs Allowed | 244 (T - 54) | 242 (T - 86) | 1st Downs | |
| Time of Possession | 27 (116) | 30 (44)) | Time of Possession | Push |
| Strength of Schedule | 21 | 18 | Strength of Schedule | Push |
Difference >25 in National Rank =
Difference >50 in National Rank =
Difference >75 in National Rank =
Difference >100 in National Rank =
Note:
All of the above rankings are taken directly from the NCAA except for strength of schedule, which is not ranked by the NCAA and instead taken from S&P+.
The Redzone TD% and Redzone TD% Defense are calculated by me and not ranked by the NCAA. Determining who has the advantage in these categories is strictly my arbitrary judgment.
Quick thoughts:
There are more Kentucky logos on this chart than I expected...but not enough in places that make me any more nervous than I was before (I wasn’t).
The Wildcats have a good defense; but their defense versus the PSU offense isn’t as good as Penn State’s defense versus the UK offense. Their offense is pretty one dimensional, with all roads to success running through running back Benny Snell, Jr - and if Brent Pry can find a way to limit him, it should be an ok day for the Nittany Lions. And, as per usual, if either team is in the redzone, that’s where PSU will excel.
The other thing that surprised me a lot about these numbers were the punt defense (or lack thereof) of Kentucky - and the fact that they’ve given up so many yards, but no touchdowns, on punt defense.
What say you all?