We’re still one week away from Big Tens. Official bid allocations will be released over the next few days. Until then, here come our projections.
- We’re projecting 10 bids here at 125 lbs, which means all 14 wrestlers will be seeded into the bracket, as shown above.
- The top 4 at this weight are pretty clear: Suriano, Lee, Tomasello, and Rivera. Mattin could be 6th, behind Minnesota’s Lizak - but Mattin also owns a head-to-head win over Lizak.
- Indiana’s Oliver is the last guy bringing a bid to B1Gs. Our guy Carson Kuhn will likely be the 14-seed, owing to zero conference wins. Carson will need to place 10th or better to make NCAAs.
- How does Carson place 10th or better? Win 2 matches. Whole bunch of ways to win 2 matches, but that’s what it all boils down to.
- TL;DR - Corey’s highly likely to get one last shot at the NCAA podium.
- Somehow, some way, it looks like the B1G could bring 9 bids. Micic, Pletcher, McKee, Duncan, Delvecchio, Keener, and Thornton are all locks. That makes 7. Renteria now has enough matches for a Coaches’ Rank, and likely the win% - that should bring a bid. The last one is probably Valdiviez (JNW) - if his RPI holds up, he’ll make it 9. It would take more than one bad round for Corey to miss that number.
- On the other hand - let’s all hope for zero bad rounds at B1Gs. Once the autobids get sucked up, all of this “who gets a bid” math gets tossed out the window, more or less. And the criteria for receiving an “at large” invitation is completely different - and largely driven by “quality wins” - i.e., how many of the guys who got autobids at their conference tournaments have you, the at large candidate, beaten? And frankly, that’s not as pretty of a picture for Corey as of now.
- In any event, because we’re counting 9 (as of now), we’ve seeded the entire bracket. But if it turns out to be just 8, then pull out #’s 9 - 14 and the two BYEs from the bracket above. They’ll be randomly assigned just prior to the start of the tournament.
- From here on out, everyone’s headed to NCAAs, so long as they step on the mat at B1Gs. That makes the write ups a lot easier.
- We’re counting 8 bids, and thus, we’ve only seeded the top 8 spots in the bracket.
- If the bracket looks like this one above, you have to like Nick Lee’s chances of making a run to the final.
- That wraps up 149 lbs.
- Wisconsin’s Andrew Crone lost twice in conference in the last 10 days, and accomplished two things: 1) Jason Nolf’s no lower than the 2-seed; and 2) seeds 3 - 6 are a big mess. To wit:
- Crone: didn’t wrestle Kemerer/Nolf/Jordan; wins over Pantaleo, Berger; losses to Van Brill and Parriott;
- Pantaleo: didn’t wrestle Kemerer; wins over Jordan (x2), Berger (x2); lost to Crone and Nolf;
- Mickey Jordan: didn’t wrestle Nolf/Crone/Berger; wins over none of the above; losses to Pantaleo (x2) and Kemerer
- Berger: didn’t wrestle Kem/Nolf/Jordan; wins over none of the above; losses to Crone (by MD) and Pantaleo (x2)
- Good luck, seeding committee. Yinz are gonna need it.
- Nolf Facts: multiple eyewitnesses testified to seeing Jason jog / hop in place at the dual vs. Bufffalo.
- Nolf Rumors and Innuendo: Jason wanted to wrestle vs. Buffalo, but was held out. Jason wants to wrestle at B1Gs, but no decision yet made. Could be 0 matches, could 2 matches and MFF the rest, could bonus everyone in the field. Stay tuned for more details.
- IMar is 1, Marinelli is 2, Cenzo is 3. All other opinions are absurd.
- From the quarterfinals on, this bracket is as difficult as NCAAs. Crazy, crazy deep weight class.
- We count 8 bids. Mark’s the top seed, and has already bonused everyone on his half of the bracket.
- That portends good things.
- We again count 8 bids. Bo’s the top seed. But he’ll have his work cut out for him to bonus his way to the final.
- Abounader’s a past B1G champ. We pegged him as the 4-seed. Emory Parker got the 3-seed via his (10-1) conference mark - though Parker didn’t wrestle Bo, MyMar, or Abounader (through no fault of his own). That’s just the simple beauty of unbalanced schedules.
- Cael still wasn’t 100% definitive post Buffalo dual, but it certainly seems like we’re rolling with Sugar Shak.
- Shak has a truncated B1G mark, but...you tell him he’s not the 1-seed.
- Only 6 bids by our counting. We don’t think returning AA Kevin Beazley (MICH) brings one. Not without an RPI (which could change), and not with that win%.
- Surprisingly difficult weight to seed. Ritter beat Beazley and Shultz - and just lost to Christian Brunner, for his 1st L in conference duals. He also lost to Moore and Beazley in early season tournaments. Cash Wilcke won Midlands, but beat no one in conference.
- In other words, we’re solid on the top 2, and not much after that. Plenty of arguments to be made.
- Two years ago, the Big Ten had 10 or 11 bids here at 285. This year it’s just 7.
- Off the six wrestlers who will be randomly drawn into the bracket, Nick probably bonuses five of them. So let’s hope for a good first round match up.
Team Projections Before Bonus