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Advanced Stats Asks for a Moment to Appreciate the Defense: Purdue

Heather Weikel



I'm a father of 3 boys, currently aged 5, 3, and 1. I don't know how often someone at least a generation older tells me to appreciate how great it is, but it's frequent.

They don't have to put up with 3 boys, aged 5, 3, and 1. But I try to heed the advice.

Because maybe it's just part of the human condition, but when you're in the middle of something extraordinary, you tend to have trouble realizing how special it really is.

Maybe you're too close to the imperfections and frustrations involved to have made an over-idealized mental picture of how wonderful it was.

Anyone remember the incessant calls for Anthony Morelli in the first few games of 05? You might.

Anyone remember Franklin needing the Minnesota game to not be fired in '16?

Anyone remember a thoroughly mistake prone offense against Illinois and Michigan in 94?

When you think back, you might. But you might not. And even if you can remember those things, they seem trivial and stupid now. But enough time passes, you look back at it, big picture, and you realize, "holy crap, that was amazing."

Ladies and gentlemen, the 2019 Penn State defense. The numbers:

median-average yards per play (maypp): Penn State: 3.33; Purdue 0.68
successful play rate (spr): Penn State: 54.17%; Purdue: 20.69%
percent non-positive plays (%npp): Penn State: 31.94; Purdue: 56.90

This defense is a great one. I don't know if they'll keep it up all year. Maybe they will; maybe they won't. But the numbers thus far are just ridiculous. Enjoy it. Soak it in. You're in the middle of it right now.

I have no friggin clue how Purdue managed to get points. Tip of the cap to Purdue for somehow scraping together a scoring drive in spite of getting so dominated.

That sounds a lot meaner than I intend it. Because I mean it: getting points on offense in spite of 0.68 maypp is an achievement.

As for the offense, well, it was what it was. It was an offense that was a hot knife through butter for a quarter and change. Then it was two quarters of fluky special teams things, an uncharacteristic bad underthrow from Clifford resulting in an INT, and a couple dumb penalties. A lack of motivation provided by the big, easy lead, and well...everything just sputtered. It was still thoroughly excellent in terms of spr, and very acceptable in terms of %npp, and not bad at all in terms of maypp.

But we know it could have been better. We know this empirically because we saw it in this game. Yeah, some odd turnovers and special teams silliness that was really nobody's fault hurt. But if this offense is going to reach its potential, it has to be the kind of offense that can shake that stuff off and play with a sense of urgency anyway. The numbers aren't bad, as noted above, but this is still a young offense at times.

Thankfully for them, and us, they have this defense.

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