FanPost

Advanced Stats Isn't Unexpected: Pitt


Going into the season, my take, and I think the take of many around the BSD commentariat, was that the defense would be great, and the offense, while very talented, was very young and inexperienced and would take time to get good. The offense would show flashes of brilliance early, and might even be solid overall statistically, but would be, at times, frustrating.

This game, and the season thus far, would do nothing to dissuade you from that opinion.

The numbers:

median-average yards per play (maypp): Penn State: 3.06; Pitt: 1.78
successful play rate (spr): Penn State: 41.9%; Pitt: 31.4%
% non-positive plays (%npr, lower is better): Penn State 33.9; Pitt 45.7

As for what those numbers mean relative to Pitt, an explanation is probably needed for this Pitt team. Pitt is Pitt. With rare exceptions, they're gonna be a 5 to 7 win team. What changes from year to year is how they're going to achieve this.

I think we've got a pretty good handle on how they're going to achieve this in 2019: by effectively being two different teams. Good Pitt is Pitt when Pickett completes at least 2/3 of his passes. This team, as we have seen, has a lead on a decent Virginia team and plays a commanding half against an Ohio team that's among the favorites to win the MAC. This team wins 10 games in the ACC, easily. Then there's Bad Pitt, which is when Pickett doesn't complete 2/3 of his passes, and maybe tosses in a couple turnovers. This Pitt gets mauled by Virginia and plays pretty even football with a Frank Solich-coached team that was incapable of running the ball. This team wins 3 games, tops.

We'll see both at times over the course of the season. They'll do something like beat UCF by 2 TD and lose to Georgia Tech by 2 TD. Wanna know why / how? Just look at Pickett's completion percentage. They'll go 6-6ish, but never actually be a 6-6ish team. Sometimes they're a 10-2ish team; sometimes they're a 3-9ish team.

Penn State saw Good Pitt. Pickett went 35/51, which is >2/3, the apparent magic number for this system to be very effective.

The defense was, at least on a typical play, nothing short of outstanding. Against a Pitt offense that simply wasn't making many mistakes (and against whom holding was simply not a penalty, apparently), they put up fantastic numbers. Shoot, those numbers would be fantastic against anyone, let alone a P5 team whose QB was having a career day. Complaints about the defense will simply not be heard here. They played like a national championship caliber defense once again.

The offense was...well. For the second week in a row, the maypp, while not particularly bad or anything, was a far cry from good considering the defensive unit they were facing. But it wasn't all bad. The %npp, while perhaps slightly higher than ideal, wasn't bad at all considering the amount of pressure Pitt was bringing. And for Penn State under Franklin, whether the offense is being run by Donovan, Moorhead, or Rahne, it was actually a well above average day. Franklin will gladly take a few more incomplete passes if it means a couple more explosive plays. And a successful play rate of >40% is actually quite good considering the amount of pressure Pitt was bringing.

So it's not like there were no positives on offense. And the offense, on the year, has still been quite good. Great numbers across the board (even considering the opponent) against Idaho, solid successful plays and %npp against Buffalo, not bad %npp and solid spr against Pitt. And none of the numbers have been bad.

Much like the very talented but very young and inexperienced defense last year, there is much complaining about the offense. But the numbers say otherwise. They're actually quite good, they just need to be more consistent. Iron it out. Improve on some little things. By the middle and end of the year, they should be really, really good. Right now, they're obviously very talented but inconsistent.

We've got a great defense and an offense that's on the whole, quite good, but inconsistent and frustrating. This is the opposite of unexpected. A bit more consistency on offense, and this team can beat anyone. But until it happens, frustrations like only winning by 7 against a team that had 1.78 maypp can happen.




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