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Penn St. Nittany Lions (2-5 Big Ten East) vs Michigan State Spartans (2-4 Big Ten East)
3:30 p.m. ET, December 12, 2020--ESPN
Beaver Stadium (Capacity: 106,579*** / University Park, PA)
| Penn State | Value (Nat'l Rank) | Value (Nat'l Rank) | Michigan State | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing Offense (ypg) | 171.0 (63) | 163.7 (62) | Rushing Defense (ypg) | Push |
| Passing Offense (ypg) | 241.6 (52) | 231.7 (63) | Passing Defense (ypg) | Push |
| Pass Efficiency | 123.86 (88) | 118.69 (23) | Pass Efficiency Defense |
 |
| Total Offense (ypg) | 412.6 (53) | 395.3 (58) | Total Defense (ypg) | Push |
| Scoring Offense (ppg) | 24.7 (89) | 34.5 (T - 98) | Scoring Defense (ppg) | Push |
| Rushing Defense (ypg) | 135.7 (T = 37) | 95.2 (121) | Rushing Offense (ypg) |
 |
| Passing Defense (ypg) | 191.7 (22) | 224.5 (T - 68) | Passing Offense (ypg) |
|
| Pass Efficiency Defense | 131.09 (48) | 112.09 (113) | Pass Efficiency |
|
| Total Defense (ypg) | 327.4 (17) | 319.7 (115) | Total Offense (ypg) |
|
| Scoring Defense (ppg) | 29.1 (66) | 17.0 (120) | Scoring Offense (ppg) |
|
| Punt Return Defense (ypr) | 7.12 (70) | 7.33 (65) | Punt Return Yds | Push |
| Punt Return Yds | 13.2 (16) | 13.54 (112) | Punt Return Defense (ypr) |
|
| Net Punting Yds | 38.17 (73) | 36.23 (101) | Net Punting Yds |
|
| Kickoff Return Yds | 14.46 (122) | 25.83 (118) | Kickoff Return Defense | Push |
| Kickoff Return Defense | 16.33 (11) | 19.28 (77) | Kickoff Return Yds |
|
| Turnover Margin | -1.14 (121) | -1.5 (125) | Turnover Margin | Push |
| Passes Had Intercepted | 9 (T - 99) | 5 (T - 63) | Passes Intercepted | |
| Passes Intercepted | 2 (T - 105) | 11 (T - 113) | Passes Had Intercepted | Push |
| Penalty Yds/Game | 38.71 (14) | 64.0 (100) | Penalty Yds/Game |
|
| Sacks | 2.14 (64) | 2.0 (44) | Sacks Allowed | Push |
| Sacks Allowed | 3.29 (113) | 2.0 (73) | Sacks | |
| Tackles for Loss (tpg) | 6.1 (65) | 6.83 (88) | Tackles for Loss Allowed (tpg) | Push |
| Tackles for Loss Allowed (tpg) | 6.71 (83) | 7.0 (33) | Tackles for Loss (tpg) |
|
| Redzone Offense (%) | 71.4% (T - 112) | 75.9% (T - 25) | Redzone Defense (%) |
|
| Redzone Defense (%) | 91.3% (114) | 100.0% (T - 1) | Redzone Offense (%) |
|
| Redzone TD % | 42.86% | 62.07% | Redzone TD % Defense | Push |
| Redzone TD % Defense | 65.22% | 66.67% | Redzone TD % | Push |
| 3rd Down Conv. % | 44.0% (42) | 38.9% (53) | 3rd Down Defense % | Push |
| 3rd Down Defense % | 41.0% (70) | 34.7% (105) | 3rd Down Conv. % | |
| 4th Down Conv. % | 44.4% (97) | 60.0% (T - 79) | 4th Down Defense % | Push |
| 4th Down Defense % | 41.7% (25) | 45.5% (T - 95) | 4th Down Conv. % |
|
| 1st Downs | 174 (53) | 128 (45) | 1st Downs Allowed | Push |
| 1st Downs Allowed | 123 (42) | 92 (105) | 1st Downs |
|
| Time of Possession | 33:34 (15) | 27:16 (111) | Time of Possession |
|
| Strength of Schedule | 12 | 22 | Strength of Schedule | Push |
Difference >25 in National Rank =
Difference >50 in National Rank =
Difference >75 in National Rank =
Difference >100 in National Rank =
Note:
All of the above rankings are taken directly from the NCAA except for strength of schedule, which is not ranked by the NCAA and instead taken from team rankings.
The Redzone TD% and Redzone TD% Defense are calculated by me and not ranked by the NCAA. Determining who has the advantage in these categories is strictly my arbitrary judgment.
Quick thoughts:
It’s like MSU is the bizarro Penn State in many ways, where they aren’t giving up yards but are giving up scores. That’s another way of saying that their scoring defense seems uncharacteristic compared to their total defense - but I guess that’s what happens when you turn the ball over a lot in your own territory.
Something else that’s unsurprising is the MSU redzone offense numbers - it’s not surprising they’ve scored 100% of the time, that is, when you see that they’ve only been in the redzone nine times all season (that’s less than two times per game). Compare that to the 28 times that Penn State’s been in the redzone, and we’ve scored three more touchdowns in our redzone trips than they’ve scored in redzone attempts all season. Woof.
Lastly, it’s miraculous what two great kickoff return defensive stops can do - last week, we were in the bottom 15 of all NCAA schools in kickoff return defense. After our special teams’ strong showing last week, we’re back in the top 15. And I LOL, because that’s so 2020.
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