FanPost

What does a Penn State Wrestler have to do?




Alright boys and girls, Wrestling Season is upon and it's time for your defending (still) National Champions to take the mat and reassure that all is right in the world. Unfortunately, there are some naysayers that favor the veteran team in Iowa City and we cannot let that stand. So, let's take a look and see what your Penn State Wrestler must accomplish to save humanity from the Hawkeye scourge. I'm going to look at this weight by weight and I'm going to make a few assumptions.

First, guys like Nick Lee and Spencer Lee will compete and put their Olympic Freestyle aspirations on hold until April. In my mind, this is the biggest question. Nick had originally planned to take the Oly red shirt and forego NCAA wrestling until the NCAA announced that it is a free year of eligibility, so why not. Spencer has given no indication of skipping the season and as the saviour/resurrector of dead Iowa wrestling, why would he? However, Michigan's Stevan Micic (Serbia) and Myles Amine (San Marino) skipped their duals this past weekend. "Is he or isn't he" Scarlet Knight Nicky Suriano is reportedly training with Zeke in Tempe and competing next weekend in Paris, and Daton Fix, who may or may not still be suspended for stealing dad's drink, wasn't in the Pokes lineup either.

Second, we're going to pretend like this Covid shit isn't going to get any worse and we will have an NCAA Tournament, sans Ivy, and it will still be a full field of 33 per weight and scored as per usual. Sorry Cornell. And, thirdly, I'm going off Wrestlestat's current Tournament Ranking for projected points without bonus, for now.

So here goes, as the rankings currently stand at 125 pounds.

Spencer Lee is projected champ and probably the best bet in the entire field to win for the Hawks. The good guys will be running out freshman Robbie Howard. Robbie, obviously, has no NCAA matches to consider and therefore, Wrestlestat awards him no points. I, on the other hand, think Robbie is good at wrestling and will beat guys like Devin Schroeder and Drew Hildebrandt to make the podium at 6th place and score 9 points.

After 125, Wrestlestat: Iowa 20, PSU 0; Our Score: Iowa 20, PSU 9

133 pounds

Micic, Fix, Suriano notwithstanding, Wrestlestat projects Austin DeSanto to finish second (16 points) and RBY to place third (12.5). If you saw these two match up last season you understand that RBY has solved the DeSanto enigma. Conservatively, I'm going to flop them.

Running score Wrestlestat: Iowa 36, PSU 12.5; Our Score: Iowa 32.5, PSU 25

141 pounds

Iowa has brought in a ringer, former Missouri Tiger Jaydin Eierman. PSU, of course, has Nick Lee. Nick Lee is a guy you need to bring up any time someone spouts off that Cael can't develop wrestlers, "he just brings in talent and rolls them out on the mat." When Nick was a school boy in Indiana he had a nice back and forth rivalry with Nebraska's Chad Red. Today, Chad Red is a very good wrestler but he is no longer much of a threat to challenge Nick Lee. As for Eierman, in 2018 he scored a major decision win over Nick at NCAAs but that was a long time ago. More recently, Nick took it to Eierman in Freestyle and before you say "but it's freestyle," Nick wrestles and scores in freestyle like he's a folk style wrestler. Wrestlestat's projection agrees with me, Eierman 2nd (16) Nick 1st (20)

Running score Wrestlestat: Iowa 52, PSU 32.5; Our Score: Iowa 48.5, PSU 45

149 pounds

The pride of Ebensburg, Max Murin, moves up to make room for Eierman and I think that's a problem. I like Max, he's a local kid that wasn't good enough to wrestle at PSU and he fit's well at Iowa. Unlike Spencer Lee though, Max wrestles that Hawkeye style, you know, hand fight, block defend, and he tries to horse guys. Unfortunately, Max isn't strong enough to do that at 149 even if his shoulder has recovered. PSU counters with another freshman Beau Bartlett. Now, Beau is going to be small for this weight, advantage Murin, But, Beau's speed is probably second only to RBY. Advantage Beau. If you want to get an idea of how this plays out watch Chad Red get to Max's legs early and often in this youtube video. Wrestlestat projects Murin 5th (9 pts) and no NCAA results for Bartlett so 0 points. I'm saying Beau bumps Murin down a couple of steps on the podium for those 9 points and leaves Murin with 5.5 points. Congratulations Max, you're an All American

Running score Wrestlestat: Iowa 61, PSU 32.5; Our Score: Iowa 54, PSU 54. We're all tied.

157 pounds

The return of Brady Berge and another PA wrestler that couldn't quite make PSU, Kaleb Young. If you watched the NLWC on Rokfin last month you got to see Brady Berge compete for the first time in almost a year and he certainly looked much better than he did in February. I'm cautiously optimistic that this abbreviated season is a good thing for Berge, he held up well against the very talented Haydin Hidlay wearing a heavily padded head gear. As long as he has no set backs I'm sure we'll see him on the podium in March.

Wrestlestat does not think much of Kaleb Young at all and has him going out in the blood round, awarding only 2 points. Check their math. Berge ranks at 16th so not much there either, projecting a first round loss and 0 points apparently. I'm thinking these guys are better than Kendall Coleman and Brayton Lee. 5th for Berge and 9 points, and 5.5 points for AA Young.

Running score Wrestlestat: Iowa 63, PSU 32.5; Our Score: Iowa 59.5, PSU 63

165 pounds

The Bull, Alex Marinelli returns for Iowa. Is this the year he meets expectations at NCAAs? Yes. And in the blue corner, with Quentin Wright as his spirit animal, Joe Lee. I mention Q because when Joe Lee takes the mat, like Q, there's a good chance that somebody is gonna get pinned. I'm also thinking, as much as I love NickLee, JoeLee is gonna be my favorite Lee. Still, Marinelli is damn good. Wrestlestat projects him number 1 and I'm not going to disagree, that's 20 points. Wrestlestat projects Joe at 1.5 points, I'm going higher 4th place and 10 points.

Running score Wrestlestat: Iowa 83, PSU 34, Our Score: Iowa 79.5, PSU 73

174 pounds

Another PA wrestler, this time the 2nd best on Iowa's roster, could have been a Penn Stater if not for Jason Nolf, Cenzo Joseph and Mark Hall. Like Marinelli, I'm going with Michael Kemerer here, National Champ but it won't be uncontested because Carter Starocci is your second argument against "Cael doesn't develop wrestlers." Carter Starocci is next in the line of David Taylor and Jason Nolf in lighting up the scoreboard like a pinball machine. Kem's just too solid though and Starocci has to settle for 2nd on the podium, this year. Wrestlestat's algorithm says 4th place and 10 points for Starocci.

Running score Wrestlestat: Iowa 103,PSU 44; Our Score: Iowa 99.5, PSU 89

184 pounds

Iowa returns Abe Assad, after all the years of Cash Wilcke coming up small change, Iowa has a decent wrestler here. Unfortunately for Hawk Fan, Aaron Brooks is much better than decent. Wrestlestat projects AB to finish 2nd behind Myles Amine, as for me, whether Myles wrestles or not it's AB All Day. Champion and 20 points. For Assad, Wrestlestat says 8th place and 5.5 points. We'll agree but don't be surprise if Abe does a little better here.

Running score Wrestlestat: Iowa 108.5, PSU 60; Our Score: Iowa 105, PSU 109

197 pounds

Here's another weight were PSU has the opportunity to push a Hawkeye down the podium. For Iowa, Jacob Warner shows flashes, wins some you think he'll lose and loses some you think he'll win. For PSU, the very talented but questionable gas tanked Michael Beard. I can't believe that Cael will run out a wrestler that isn't in top condition and, I think, that it's a bit of a mental issue with Beard, as in, don't forget to breathe while your wrestling. He looked good last time on Rokfin with a nice win over Nicky Reenan. I'm gonna say Beard is better than Warner. Wrestlestat's algorithm will come around by then too but for right now they have Warner 5th for 10 points and Beard 8th for 5.5. I say Beard takes Warner's lunch money and 10 points, dropping Warner to 6th and 9 points.

Running score Wrestlestat: Iowa 118.5, PSU 65.5; Our Score: Iowa 114, PSU 119

285 pounds

Iowa got theirs at 141, we get ours at heavyweight. Anthony Cassioppi vs. Greg Kerkvliet. Kerk has little to go on for the algorithm but we've seen more. Wrestlestat likes Big Cass to finish 4th with 12.5 points and Kerk a couple of wins on the back side for 1.5 points. We know better and, once again, PSU takes points away from Iowa. Kerk finishes 3rd for 13.5 points, dropping Cass a couple of spots and 10 points.

So here you have it Wrestlestat throws their data into the hopper and the algorithm projects Iowa to win with 131 points with PSU 3rd at 68.5 points. But that's not the whole story. The young freshmen come up big and Iowa drops to 2nd with a respectable 124 points and your Penn State Nittany Lions retain the title with 132.5 points. With that you can rest easy when your head hits the pillow tonight.

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