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Just the Stats: No. 23 Penn State vs No. 9 Michigan

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If you wanted to stop scrolling now, I wouldn’t blame you.

NCAA Football: Michigan at Penn State Matthew O’Haren-USA TODAY Sports

Penn St. Nittany Lions (6-3; 3-3 Big Ten East) vs Michigan Wolverines (8-1; 5-1 Big Ten East)

12 p.m. ET, November 13, 2021--ABC

Beaver Stadium (Capacity: 106,579 / University Park, PA)

Tableizer using codebeautify.org
Penn State Value (Nat'l Rank) Value (Nat'l Rank) Michigan Advantage
Rushing Offense (ypg) 107.0 (117) 124.7 (30) Rushing Defense (ypg) Michigan logo Michigan logo Michigan logo
Passing Offense (ypg) 277.7 (25) 173.4 (8) Passing Defense (ypg) Push
Pass Efficiency 135.49 (75) 111.47 (10) Pass Efficiency Defense Michigan logo Michigan logo
Total Offense (ypg) 384.7 (80) 298.1 (6) Total Defense (ypg) Michigan logo Michigan logo
Scoring Offense (ppg) 27.0 (79) 16.0 (T - 6) Scoring Defense (ppg) Michigan logo Michigan logo
Rushing Defense (ypg) 137.2 (49) 234.1 (7) Rushing Offense (ypg) Michigan logo
Passing Defense (ypg) 213.6 (45) 217.3 (83) Passing Offense (ypg) new PSU logo
Pass Efficiency Defense 107.58 (6) 142.94 (51) Pass Efficiency new PSU logo
Total Defense (ypg) 350.8 (40) 451.4 (25) Total Offense (ypg) Push
Scoring Defense (ppg) 16.67 (T - 10) 36.2 (20) Scoring Offense (ppg) Push
Punt Return Defense (ypr) 1.89 (7) 12.33 (25) Punt Return Yds (ypr) Push
Punt Return Yds (ypr) 7.08 (79) 5.25 (36) Punt Return Defense (ypr) Michigan logo
Net Punting Yds (ypp) 45.06 (2) 46.29 (6) Net Punting Yds (ypp) Push
Kickoff Return Yds (ypr) 15.3 (123) 12.62 (2) Kickoff Return Defense (ypr) Michigan logo Michigan logo Michigan logo Michigan logo
Kickoff Return Defense (ypr) 11.0 (1) 20.68 (65) Kickoff Return Yds (ypr) new PSU logo new PSU logo
Turnover Margin +.67 (T - 19) +.56 (T - 29) Turnover Margin Push
Passes Had Intercepted (total) 8 (T - 75) 6 (T - 82) Passes Intercepted (total) Push
Passes Intercepted (total) 10 (T - 23) 4 (T - 18) Passes Had Intercepted (total) Push
Penalty Yds/Game 55.44 (72) 45.67 (35) Penalty Yds/Game Michigan logo
Sacks (spg) 1.89 (T - 85) 0.67 (3) Sacks Allowed (spg) Michigan logo Michigan logo Michigan logo
Sacks Allowed (spg) 2.22 (T - 68) 2.22 (T - 63) Sacks (spg) Push
Tackles for Loss (tpg) 6.0 (T - 37) 2.0 (T - 1) Tackles for Loss Allowed (tpg) Michigan logo
Tackles for Loss Allowed (tpg) 6.11 (T - 100) 4.6 (T - 87) Tackles for Loss (tpg) Push
Redzone Offense (% season) 89.3% (33) 81.2% (T - 52) Redzone Defense (% season) Push
Redzone Defense (% season) 64.7% (6) 93.3% (7) Redzone Offense (% season) Push
Redzone TD % (season) 53.57% 56.25% Redzone TD % Defense (season) Push
Redzone TD % Defense (season) 29.41% 55.56% Redzone TD % (season) new PSU logo
3rd Down Conv. % (season) 39.8% (66) 32.6% (T - 17) 3rd Down Defense % (season) Michigan logo
3rd Down Defense % (season) 35.6% (34) 44.2% (36) 3rd Down Conv. % (season) Push
4th Down Conv. % (season) 35.7% (T - 115) 44.4% (42) 4th Down Defense % (season) Michigan logo Michigan logo
4th Down Defense % (season) 57.1% (T - 87) 64.7% (T - 30) 4th Down Conv. % (season) Michigan logo Michigan logo
1st Downs (season) 187 (T - 75) 141 (9) 1st Downs Allowed (season) Michigan logo Michigan logo
1st Downs Allowed (season) 195 (T - 83) 200 (T - 47) 1st Downs (season) Michigan logo
Time of Possession 28 (104) 32 (11) Time of Possession Michigan logo Michigan logo Michigan logo
strength of Schedule 6 18 Strength of Schedule Push

Difference >25 in National Rank = new PSU logo

Difference >50 in National Rank = new PSU logonew PSU logo

Difference >75 in National Rank = new PSU logonew PSU logonew PSU logo

Difference >100 in National Rank =new PSU logonew PSU logonew PSU logonew PSU logo

Note:

All of the above rankings are taken directly from the NCAA except for strength of schedule, which is taken from Team Rankings.com.

The Redzone TD% and Redzone TD% Defense are calculated by me and not ranked by the NCAA. Determining who has the advantage in these categories is strictly my arbitrary judgment.

Quick thoughts:

I mean...those are a lot of block Ms, more than we saw against Ohio State. Michigan is much better this year than they were last, when Penn State broke its streak against them - but how good is PSU? We simply don’t know.

Some observations from the numbers: the big one for me is that Jordan Stout and the special teams squad faced their first kickoff return this past week, but since it got stopped after just 11 yards, the Nittany Lions remain first in the nation (just ahead of Michigan, who’s had 8 kickoffs returned on the season).

The PSU defense remains elite in the redzone, but something glaring to me - Penn State has allowed their opponents into the redzone 34 times while their own offense has only been in the redzone 28 times! While the RZ defense is, as said already, elite with fewer touchdowns allowed (10) than field goals (12), the Penn State offense is actually not as bad as it sometimes seems - in the top fifth of the nation, scoring in almost 9 out of 10 RZ trips, with over 50% of those trips resulting in six points.

On the flip side, Michigan’s defense has only allowed opponents into the redzone 16 times on the season (less than two times per game!), but when they do - they’ve let up 13 scores (9 TDs and 3 field goals). That complements their offense well; the Michigan O has been in the redzone a whopping 45 times (5 times per game), with 25 touchdowns and 17 field goals to show for it. Yes, they’ve scored almost as many touchdowns from the redzone as PSU has had redzone trips - but without doing any research beyond gathering these stats, that might have to do with their offense not being predicated on explosive plays, but rather methodical drives down the field.

What say you all?