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#12 Penn St. Nittany Lions (5-3; 3-3 Big Ten East) vs Maryland Terrapins (5-3; 3-3 Big Ten East)
3:30 p.m. ET, November 6, 2021--FS1
Maryland Stadium (Capacity: 51,802 / College Park, MD)
| Penn State | Value (Nat'l Rank) | Value (Nat'l Rank) | Maryland | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing Offense (ypg) | 108.1 (114) | 161.0 (79) | Rushing Defense (ypg) |  |
| Passing Offense (ypg) | 267.0 (34) | 241.85 (85) | Passing Defense (ypg) |
 |
| Pass Efficiency | 134.23 (83) | 135.2 (75) | Pass Efficiency Defense | Push |
| Total Offense (ypg) | 375.1 (85) | 402.5 (84) | Total Defense (ypg) | Push |
| Scoring Offense (ppg) | 26.5 (78) | 30.38 (96) | Scoring Defense (ppg) | Push |
| Rushing Defense (ypg) | 148.4 (T - 65) | 121.9 (102) | Rushing Offense (ypg) |
|
| Passing Defense (ypg) | 193.9 (25) | 309.2 (15) | Passing Offense (ypg) | Push |
| Pass Efficiency Defense | 103.56 (6) | 154.99 (23) | Pass Efficiency | Push |
| Total Defense (ypg) | 342.2 (38) | 431.1 (42) | Total Offense (ypg) | Push |
| Scoring Defense (ppg) | 17.0 (T - 8) | 29.2 (T - 63) | Scoring Offense (ppg) |
|
| Punt Return Defense (ypr) | 2.38 (T - 11) | 5.12 (T - 104) | Punt Return Yds (ypr) |
|
| Punt Return Yds (ypr) | 6.64 (87) | 6.23 (51) | Punt Return Defense (ypr) |
|
| Net Punting Yds (ypp) | 46.54 (2) | 39.8 (59) | Net Punting Yds (ypp) |
|
| Kickoff Return Yds (ypr) | 14.75 (125) | 26.88 (121) | Kickoff Return Defense (ypr) | Push |
| Kickoff Return Defense (ypr) | 0.00 (T - 1) | 17.89 (103) | Kickoff Return Yds (ypr) |
|
| Turnover Margin | +.50 (T - 33) | -.75 (T - 119) | Turnover Margin |
|
| Passes Had Intercepted (total) | 8 (T - 90) | 4 (T - 96) | Passes Intercepted (total) | Push |
| Passes Intercepted (total) | 9 (T - 22) | 9 (T - 99) | Passes Had Intercepted (total) |
|
| Penalty Yds/Game | 54.88 (T - 65) | 61.62 (T - 91) | Penalty Yds/Game |
|
| Sacks (spg) | 1.88 (T - 84) | 1.88 (T - 54) | Sacks Allowed (spg) | |
| Sacks Allowed (spg) | 2.12 (T - 66) | 2.88 (T - 19) | Sacks per (spg) | |
| Tackles for Loss (tpg) | 6.0 (33) | 6.25 (T - 111) | Tackles for Loss Allowed (tpg) |
|
| Tackles for Loss Allowed (tpg) | 6.25 (T - 111) | 5.2 (56) | Tackles for Loss (tpg) |
|
| Redzone Offense (% season) | 88.9% (T - 38) | 78.9% (T - 37) | Redzone Defense (% season) | Push |
| Redzone Defense (% season) | 69.0% (9) | 77.5% (102) | Redzone Offense (% season) |
|
| Redzone TD %( season) | 55.56% | 52.63% | Redzone TD % Defense (season) | Push |
| Redzone TD % Defense (season) | 27.59% | 55.00% | Redzone TD % (season) |
|
| 3rd Down Conv. % (season) | 37.4% (85) | 37.3% (49) | 3rd Down Defense % (season) | |
| 3rd Down Defense % (season) | 36.6% (T - 43) | 40.6% (68) | 3rd Down Conv. % (season) | |
| 4th Down Conv. % (season) | 38.5% (T - 108) | 50.0% (T -52) | 4th Down Defense % (season) |
|
| 4th Down Defense % (season) | 58.3% (T - 84) | 54.5% (T - 59) | 4th Down Conv. % (season) | |
| 1st Downs (season) | 164 (T - 81) | 168 (T - 68) | 1st Downs Allowed (season) | Push |
| 1st Downs Allowed (season) | 166 (T - 59) | 181 (T - 44) | 1st Downs (season) | Push |
| Time of Possession | 27 (112) | 29 (69) | Time of Possession |
|
| Strength of Schedule | 6 | 46 | Strength of Schedule |
|
Difference >25 in National Rank =
Difference >50 in National Rank =
Difference >75 in National Rank =
Difference >100 in National Rank =
Note:
All of the above rankings are taken directly from the NCAA except for strength of schedule, which is taken from Team Rankings.com.
The Redzone TD% and Redzone TD% Defense are calculated by me and not ranked by the NCAA. Determining who has the advantage in these categories is strictly my arbitrary judgment.
Quick thoughts:
I didn’t remember how not great these stats were headed into last year’s matchup - a prescient sign in retrospect. This year is a little different, but mostly on the special teams-front, where Penn State’s got the decided edge.
A few of the things that stood out for me? PSU’s offense has been in the redzone 27 times (scoring touchdowns 15 of those times), versus Maryland’s 40 trips inside the 25 (when they’ve scored 22 TDs). PSU’s opponents, however, have scored only 8 touchdowns and 12 field goals in 29 redzone trips on the year (including a valiant showing in Columbus last week), while Maryland’s defense has allowed 20 touchdowns and 10 field goals in 38 redzone trips.
On the punting side, Maryland has punted 35 times to PSU’s 41 - but have also allowed 24 kickoff returns out of 36 possible. As most of you likely know if you follow this humble blogger’s predilictions, Penn State has not allowed a single kickoff return this season with 39 touchbacks.
But something that stands out to me on how fickle these numbers can be? Fourth down conversions. Both Penn State and Maryland’s defenses have faced 12 fourth downs, but PSU only stopped five of them to UM’s six stops - which results in almost a 50-team-ranking slide. This is a game of inches, indeed.
What say you all?