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Penn St. Nittany Lions (7-5; 4-5 Big Ten East) vs Arkansas Razorbacks (8-4; 4-4 SEC West)
12 p.m. ET, January 1, 2022--ESPN2
Raymond James Stadium (Capacity: 65,618 / Tampa, FL)
| Penn State | Value (Nat'l Rank) | Value (Nat'l Rank) | Arkansas | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing Offense (ypg) | 106.4 (118) | 155.9 (70) | Rushing Defense (ypg) |  |
| Passing Offense (ypg) | 274.4 (22) | 215.5 (44) | Passing Defense (ypg) | Push |
| Pass Efficiency | 136.54 (71) | 129.38 (53) | Pass Efficiency Defense | Push |
| Total Offense (ypg) | 380.8 (81) | 371.4 (58) | Total Defense (ypg) | Push |
| Scoring Offense (ppg) | 26.2 (84) | 23 (45) | Scoring Defense (ppg) | |
| Rushing Defense (ypg) | 136 (40) | 217.3 (12) | Rushing Offense (ypg) | |
| Passing Defense (ypg) | 208.3 (34) | 223.6 (73) | Passing Offense (ypg) |
 |
| Pass Efficiency Defense | 111.98 (9) | 164.28 (9) | Pass Efficiency | Push |
| Total Defense (ypg) | 344.3 (32) | 440.9 (31) | Total Offense (ypg) | Push |
| Scoring Defense (ppg) | 16.75 (7) | 31.5 (43) | Scoring Offense (ppg) | |
| Punt Return Defense (ypr) | 2.38 (4) | 10.67 (T - 28) | Punt Return Yds (ypr) | Push |
| Punt Return Yds (ypr) | 7.0 (T - 84) | 7.19 (57) | Punt Return Defense (ypr) | |
| Net Punting Yds (ypp) | 45.08 (2) | 38.39 (80) | Net Punting Yds (ypp) |
|
| Kickoff Return Yds (ypr) | 17.81 (103) | 21.1 (69) | Kickoff Return Defense (ypr) | |
| Kickoff Return Defense (ypr) | 14.0 (5) | 18.24 (97) | Kickoff Return Yds (ypr) |
|
| Turnover Margin (season) | +.5 (T - 30) | +.42 (T - 35) | Turnover Margin (season) | Push |
| Passes Had Intercepted (season) | 8 (T - 32) | 11 (T - 43) | Passes Intercepted (season) | Push |
| Passes Intercepted (season) | 12 (T - 36) | 3 (T - 1) | Passes Had Intercepted (season) | |
| Penalty Yds/Game | 49.08 (47) | 64.92(108) | Penalty Yds/Game |
|
| Sacks (spg) | 1.83 (T - 88) | 2.08 (T - 56) | Sacks Allowed (spg) | |
| Sacks Allowed (spg) | 2.67 (T - 95) | 1.83 (T -&8) | Sacks (spg) | Push |
| Tackles for Loss (tpg) | 6.1 (T - 49) | 6.58 (T -108) | Tackles for Loss Allowed (tpg) |
|
| Tackles for Loss Allowed (tpg) | 6.75 (T - 112) | 6.2 (T - 46) | Tackles for Loss (tpg) |
|
| Redzone Offense (% season) | 82.1% (83) | 76.5% (T - 27) | Redzone Defense (% season) |
|
| Redzone Defense (% season) | 66.67% (T - 3) | 91.3% (12) | Redzone Offense (% season) | Push |
| Redzone TD % (season) | 51.28% | 52.94% | Redzone TD % Defense (season) | Push |
| Redzone TD % Defense (season) | 35.71% | 65.22% | Redzone TD % (season) | Push |
| 3rd Down Conv. % (season) | 38.5% (77) | 32.9% (T - 16) | 3rd Down Defense % (season) |
|
| 3rd Down Defense % (season) | 36.4% (41) | 37.5% (86) | 3rd Down Conv. % (season) | |
| 4th Down Conv. % (season) | 45.8% (88) | 60.9% (96) | 4th Down Defense % (season) | Push |
| 4th Down Defense % (season) | 57.1% (T - 82) | 56.2% (T - 52) | 4th Down Conv. % | |
| 1st Downs | 251 (T - 76) | 231 (T - 35) | 1st Downs Allowed | |
| 1st Downs Allowed | 243 (T - 50) | 262 (T - 62) | 1st Downs | Push |
| Time of Possession | 28 (106) | 28 (102) | Time of Possession | Push |
| Strength of Schedule | 8 | 9 | Strength of Schedule | Push |
Difference >25 in National Rank =
Difference >50 in National Rank =
Difference >75 in National Rank =
Difference >100 in National Rank =
Note:
All of the above rankings are taken directly from the NCAA except for strength of schedule, which is taken from Team Rankings.com.
The Redzone TD% and Redzone TD% Defense are calculated by me and not ranked by the NCAA. Determining who has the advantage in these categories is strictly my arbitrary judgment.
Quick thoughts:
These stats have to be caveated more than most bowl years, simply because of the number of opt outs occurring on both sides (but more announced so far for Penn State). The above rankings are about what I would expect from a 7-5 PSU team taking on an 8-4 SEC squad, with similar strengths of schedule.
But for those expecting a blowout...I’d be really surprised. These two teams haven’t met before, but James Franklin doesn’t have a history of blowouts in bowl games (and very rarely in the regular season, too), though if there was a year that bucks normal trends, 2021 would be it.
Luckily this game takes place in 2022.
What say you all?