Advanced Stats Says This Defense is More Like It: Ohio

Penn State played a MAC team that went 3-9 last year and won 46-10 in a game that was not as close as 46-10 sounds. Barely 2/3 of the way into the game (4:33 left in the 3rd quarter), Penn State's offensive depth scored to make it 40-7. The remaining 19:33 was a 6-3 formality.

But things can be learned here.

For one, 2021 Ohio U. was better than "3-9 MAC team" sounds. They had a schedule that included 2 P5 teams and a legitimate top 25 Sun Belt Conference champ, and lost 4 other games by a combined 9 regulation points. This, after their long time head coach gave up just a few weeks before the season started. Nobody's pretending they were good, just a whole lot better than "3-9 MAC team."

For another, 2022 Ohio U. looked genuinely good on offense week 1 against FAU, on the road. They put up 4.11 maypp and 41 points on an FAU defense that was darned close to average in 2021 and so far this year, looks better than that. They held Charlotte and SE Louisiana to under 2.7 maypp and 14 points each. That defense is decent, and OhU looked good against them.

The numbers:

maypp: Penn State 4.03; Ohio 2.20
spr: Penn State 51.2%; Ohio 40.3%
%npp: Penn State 37.2%; Ohio 46.3%

After looking...well...definitely not bad or even average, but a bit underwhelming in week 1 against Purdue, the defense got right against OhU. The spr allowed isn't great, but definitely isn't bad, and most of the problems there came in that last 19:33 when Penn State emptied the bench, so nitpicking there is definitely nitpicking. The npp and maypp are outstanding. Especially because, limited sample size being what it is, all indications are that this Ohio U. offense is legitimately decent. Holding them to far under 2.7 maypp and npp > spr is just an outstanding defensive day.

As for the offense: I feel much about the offense the same way I felt about the defense after the Purdue game. Those numbers definitely aren't bad or even average. The offense played mostly well and put up solidly above average numbers, even considering the opponent.

But it was sloppy. Too many sacks allowed. Too many drops. Too many open receivers missed. Too many plays just not well blocked. That's what I saw, and the npp being well north of 30 reflects that. There's no shortage of things for any of the offensive position coaches to work on heading into Auburn. Probably some of it was just human condition sort of lackadaisical-ness because "lol it's a 3-9 MAC team," but that level of mistake making on offense isn't going to get it done against the better teams on the schedule.

But when you've got a Nick Singleton who can take not well blocked plays to the house, a Sean Clifford who can fit TDs into the absolute narrowest of windows with time winding down, and a Drew Allar who can throw decently covered guys wide open for TDs, it feels good man.

You created a Fanpost! Good for you! Any content from a premium site will be deleted once we catch wind of it--as will any inappropriate content. If you simply want to share a link, quote, or video, please consider using Fanshots instead.