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No. 11/12 Penn St. Nittany Lions (4-0; 1-0 Big Ten East) vs Northwestern Wildcats (1-3; 1-0 Big Ten West)
3:30 p.m. ET, October 1, 2022—ESPN
Beaver Stadium (Capacity: 106,579 / University Park, PA)
| Penn State | Value (Nat'l Rank) | Value (Nat'l Rank) | Northwestern | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing Offense (ypg) | 185.8 (T - 43) | 160.8 (91) | Rushing Defense (ypg) |  |
| Passing Offense (ypg) | 278.8 (36) | 229.5 (74) | Passing Defense (ypg) | |
| Pass Efficiency | 150.8 (47) | 130.26 (70) | Pass Efficiency Defense | Push |
| Total Offense (ypg) | 464.5 (33) | 390.2 (82) | Total Defense (ypg) | |
| Scoring Offense (ppg) | 38.8 (T - 29) | 26.75 (T - 81) | Scoring Defense (ppg) |
|
| Rushing Defense (ypg) | 91.8 (21) | 141.0 (T - 87) | Rushing Offense (ypg) |
|
| Passing Defense (ypg) | 275.0 (112) | 304.8 (20) | Passing Offense (ypg) |
 |
| Pass Efficiency Defense | 102.96 (13) | 123.73 (100) | Pass Efficiency |
|
| Total Defense (ypg) | 366.8 (64) | 445.8 (49) | Total Offense (ypg) | Push |
| Scoring Defense (ppg) | 16.75 (T - 23) | 23.0 (T - 104) | Scoring Offense (ppg) |
|
| Punt Return Defense (ypr) | 5.8 (T - 60) | 3.33 (T - 116) | Punt Return Yds (ypr) |
|
| Punt Return Yds (ypr) | 7.44 (75) | 1.0 (23) | Punt Return Defense (ypr) |
|
| Net Punting Yds (ypp) | 43.33 (T - 11) | 38.22 (84) | Net Punting Yds (ypp) |
|
| Kickoff Return Yds (ypr) | 19.44 (T - 83) | 19.3 (59) | Kickoff Return Defense (ypr) | Push |
| Kickoff Return Defense (ypr) | 17.07 (23) | 21.5 (T - 56) | Kickoff Return Yds (ypr) |
|
| Turnover Margin (season) | +2.0 (4) | -1.25 (121) | Turnover Margin (season) |
|
| Passes Had Intercepted (season) | 1 (T - 9) | 4 (T - 39) | Passes Intercepted (season) | |
| Passes Intercepted (season) | 4 (T - 39) | 3 (T - 63) | Passes Had Intercepted (season) | Push |
| Penalty Yds/Game | 54.0 (T - 55) | 55.75 (T - 61) | Penalty Yds/Game | Push |
| Sacks (spg) | 3.0 (T - 19) | 1.25 (T - 36) | Sacks Allowed (spg) | Push |
| Sacks Allowed (spg) | 1.75 (T - 56) | 2.25 (T - 51) | Sacks (spg) | Push |
| Tackles for Loss (tpg) | 5.5 (T - 72) | 4.25 (T - 32) | Tackles for Loss Allowed (tpg) | |
| Tackles for Loss Allowed (tpg) | 4.75 (T - 40) | 5.2 (T -78) | Tackles for Loss (tpg) | |
| Redzone Offense (% season) | 94.1% (T - 23) | 80.0% (T - 44) | Redzone Defense (% season) | Push |
| Redzone Defense (% season) | 71.4% (T - 20) | 81.2% (T - 83) | Redzone Offense (% season) |
|
| Redzone TD % (season) | 82.35% | 66.67% | Redzone TD % Defense (season) | |
| Redzone TD % Defense (season) | 42.86% | 62.5% | Redzone TD % (season) | |
| 3rd Down Conv. % (season) | 36.0% (87) | 40.4% (89) | 3rd Down Defense % (season) | Push |
| 3rd Down Defense % (season) | 31.1% (37) | 36.8% (82) | 3rd Down Conv. % (season) | |
| 4th Down Conv. % (season) | 55.6% (T - 58) | 100% (T - 130) | 4th Down Defense % (season) |
|
| 4th Down Defense % (season) | 63.6% (T - 101) | 71.4% (T - 22) | 4th Down Conv. % |
|
| 1st Downs | 91 (T - 54) | 79 (T - 68) | 1st Downs Allowed | Push |
| 1st Downs Allowed | 85 (T - 84) | 95 (T - 43) | 1st Downs | |
| Time of Possession | 30 (54) | 31 (44) | Time of Possession | Push |
| Strength of Schedule | 32 | 29 | Strength of Schedule | Push |
Difference >25 in National Rank =
Difference >50 in National Rank =
Difference >75 in National Rank =
Difference >100 in National Rank =
Note:
All of the above rankings are taken directly from the NCAA except for strength of schedule, which is taken from Sports Illustrated.
The Redzone TD% and Redzone TD% Defense are calculated by me and not ranked by the NCAA. Determining who has the advantage in these categories is strictly my arbitrary judgment.
Quick thoughts:
Penn State’s offense should just go for it on every fourth down. And, if that differential between pass defense and scoring defense (and turnover margin) doesn’t scream Manny Diaz’s high risk, high reward defensive style, I don’t know what would.
This is the first time we’re publishing this this season, and so far, Penn State has vastly improved on most of the metrics compared to last season - and has already played a tougher schedule than many in the country. This is definitely the mark of a good team getting better by the week.
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