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NCAA Football: Michigan at Penn State

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Just the Stats: No. 10 Penn State vs No. 3 Michigan

The numbers behind this week’s top Big Ten East matchup!

Matthew OHaren-USA TODAY Sports

No. 10 Penn St. Nittany Lions (8-1; 5-1 Big Ten East) vs No. 3 Michigan Wolverines (9-0, 6-0 Big Ten East)


12:00 p.m. ET, November 11, 2023—Fox


Beaver Stadium (Capacity: 106,572 / University Park, PA)


Tableizer using codebeautify.org
Penn State Value (Nat'l Rank) Value (Nat'l Rank) Michigan Advantage
Rushing Offense (ypg) 173.2 (42) 90.1 (9) Rushing Defense (ypg) Michigan logo
Passing Offense (ypg) 220.8 (74) 141.3 (1) Passing Defense (ypg) Michigan logo Michigan logo
Pass Efficiency 140.0 (54) 95.56 (2) Pass Efficiency Defense Michigan logo Michigan logo
Total Offense (ypg) 394.0 (60) 231.4 (1) Total Defense (ypg) Michigan logo Michigan logo
Scoring Offense (ppg) 40.2 (6) 6.67 (1) Scoring Defense (ppg) Push
Rushing Defense (ypg) 60.3 (1) 167.1 (50) Rushing Offense (ypg) new PSU logo
Passing Defense (ypg) 173.9 (12) 357.1 (44) Passing Offense (ypg) new PSU logo
Pass Efficiency Defense 109.24 (9) 182.42 (2) Pass Efficiency Push
Total Defense (ypg) 234.2 (2) 424.2 (42) Total Offense (ypg) new PSU logo
Scoring Defense (ppg) 11.89 (3) 40.7 (5) Scoring Offense (ppg) Push
Punt Return Defense (ypr) 5.2 (36) 8.48 (66) Punt Return Yds (ypr) new PSU logo
Punt Return Yds (ypr) 11.45 (31) 6.0 (T - 44) Punt Return Defense (ypr) Push
Net Punting Yds (ypp) 41.25 (24) 42.87 (9) Net Punting Yds (ypp) Push
Kickoff Return Yds (ypr) 24.07 (21) 13.6 (4) Kickoff Return Defense (ypr) Push
Kickoff Return Defense (ypr) 16.83 (26) 16.25 (117) Kickoff Return Yds (ypr) new PSU logo new PSU logo new PSU logo
Turnover Margin +1.78 (1) +1.0 (T - 6) Turnover Margin Push
Passes Had Intercepted (total) 1 (1) 12 (T - 7) Passes Intercepted (total) Push
Passes Intercepted (total) 10 (T - 19) 4 (T - 10) Passes Had Intercepted (total) Push
Penalty Yds/Game 49.8 (55) 23.11 (1) Penalty Yds/Game Michigan logo Michigan logo
Sacks (spg) 4.22 (1) 1.22 (T - 18) Sacks Allowed (spg) Push
Sacks Allowed (spg) 1.33 (T - 25) 2.44 (T - 41) Sacks (spg) Push
Tackles for Loss (tpg) 8.4 (4) 3.22 (T - 3) Tackles for Loss Allowed (tpg) Push
Tackles for Loss Allowed (tpg) 4.22 (T - 17) 6.3 (T - 32) Tackles for Loss (tpg) Push
Redzone Offense (% season) 95.7% (6) 45.5% (1) Redzone Defense (% season) Push
Redzone Defense (% season) 87.5% (T - 93) 89.9% (T - 35) Redzone Offense (% season) Michigan logo Michigan logo
Redzone TD % (season) 78.72% 9.09% Redzone TD % Defense (season) Michigan logo
Redzone TD % Defense (season) 56.25% 77.78% Redzone TD % (season) Push
3rd Down Conv. % (season) 42.2% (45) 29.4% (13) 3rd Down Defense % (season) Michigan logo
3rd Down Defense % (season) 28.7% (8) 55.6% (2) 3rd Down Conv. % (season) Push
4th Down Conv. % (season) 84.2% (3) 26.3% (7) 4th Down Defense % (season) Push
4th Down Defense % (season) 40.0% (T - 31) 63.6% (T - 31) 4th Down Conv. % (season) Push
1st Downs (season) 215 (17) 102 (1) 1st Downs Allowed (season) Push
1st Downs Allowed (season) 118 (2) 201 (T - 36) 1st Downs (season) new PSU logo
Time of Possession 33 (3) 32 (15) Time of Possession Push
Strength of Schedule 57 70 Strength of Schedule Push

Difference >25 in National Rank = new PSU logo

Difference >50 in National Rank = new PSU logonew PSU logo

Difference >75 in National Rank = new PSU logonew PSU logonew PSU logo

Difference >100 in National Rank = new PSU logonew PSU logonew PSU logonew PSU logo

Note:

All of the above rankings are taken directly from the NCAA except for strength of schedule, which is taken from Power Rankings.

The Redzone TD% and Redzone TD% Defense are calculated by me and not ranked by the NCAA. Determining who has the advantage in these categories is strictly my arbitrary judgment.

Quick thoughts:

Honestly, this isn’t as bad as a lot of us likely feared! The Penn State defense is just as elite as Michigan’s, against a tougher schedule; UM’s offense is decidedly ahead of PSU’s, aside from a few great games (including last week’s against Maryland).

A few specifics:

  • PSU is back on top of the NCAA rankings in interceptions thrown; Air Force had 0 before last week, but now has two.
  • Penn State has done well on a lot of fourth down tries, at 16 of 19 so far on the year; Michigan is 7 of 11 on fourth downs.
  • Nittany Lion opponents have made 6 of 15 fourth down tries, while Wolverine opponents have succeeded on five out of their 19 fourth down attempts.
  • PSU has been in the red zone two more times than Michigan, 47 to 45; UM’s opponents have been in the red zone the fewest number of times in the nation (11) to Penn State’s opponents 16 (third in the nation)
  • The punt return numbers are almost even (Michigan has returned 23 to our 22), but Penn State’s opponents have returned 15 to UM opponents’ 4
  • The Wolverines have punted only 23 times, while PSU has punted 36
  • Michigan opponents have returned ten kickoffs (with 46 touchbacks); Penn State opponents have returned fourteen kickoffs (with 43 touchbacks)

What say you all?

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