Advanced Stats Takes A Quick Look At Kotelnicki: 2023 Kansas Offense

Andy Kotelnicki is Penn State's new OC. Is he good? Bad? Meh?

Here's all of Kansas' offensive maypps this year:

5.264705882352941 missouri st
4.552631578947368 Illinois
4.75 Nevada
4.931034482758621 byu
1.9166666666666667 texas
5.424242424242424 ucf
4.484848484848484 oklahoma st
3.263157894736842 oklahoma
2.1666666666666665 iowa st
2.710526315789474 texas tech
4.379310344827586 kansas st
7.538461538461538 cinci

Well that's overwhelmingly awesome, but there are 3 up there solidly below 3.0. Is that a concern?

I say no.

Texas was the first game without star QB Jalon Daniels and against the #6 DF+ defense, on the road. Not good, but under the circumstances, I's Kansas with a very inexperienced backup on the road. And still a better maypp than Penn State put up against OSU.

ISU: they were up 21-3 on the road midway through the 3Q and basically sat on the ball the rest of the way. Methinks a maypp of 2.17 is 10x more "we were up 18 on the road with 1.5 quarters to play, and started playing to kill clock." Also, ISU finished #21 DF+ so it's not like they were bad there. Still scored 28 points on the road and won over a P5 bowl team. 2.17 is still not very good, but meh, whatever.

Texas Tech: #3 QB was not the starter coming into the game, but played almost all of it. Also, down by double digits early, so taken out of their gameplan. Still outscored Texas Tech 13-6 once the #3 guy game in, and very well might win but for settling for 2 FGs on drives inside the 10 late. And it's not like 2.71 is bad.

Sure, you can say "Big XII defenses aren't B1G defenses." And I would agree with that. But (1) the Big XII plays far, far better defense than it did 5-10 years ago, and (2) this was done with Kansas talent, which 247 says was the 5th least talented P5 offense.

And while the sample size is small and Penn State was playing with a lot of short fields so I don't think it's totally fair as a comparison, Kansas put up 4.55 on Illinois, which is more than any B1G team did to them, including Penn State.

At the end of the day, against FBS competition, Kansas averaged 4.19 maypp against defenses that gave up an average of 3.37. Mostly with backup QBs. This was an elite offense with not elite talent.

We got ourselves a good one.

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