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No. 7 Penn St. Nittany Lions (2-0; 0-0 Big Ten East) vs Illinois Fighting Illini (1-1; 0-0 Big Ten West)
12:00 p.m. ET, September 16, 2023—Fox
Memorial Stadium (Capacity: 60,670 / Champaign, IL)
| Penn State | Value (Nat'l Rank) | Value (Nat'l Rank) | Illinois | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing Offense (ypg) | 230.5 (15) | 224.0 (122) | Rushing Defense (ypg) |
|
| Passing Offense (ypg) | 279.0 (41) | 253.5 (99) | Passing Defense (ypg) |
|
| Pass Efficiency | 180.94 (17) | 140.59 (92) | Pass Efficiency Defense |
|
| Total Offense (ypg) | 509.5 (T - 14) | 477.5 (125) | Total Defense (ypg) |
|
| Scoring Offense (ppg) | 50.5 (T - 6) | 31.0 (T - 105) | Scoring Defense (ppg) |
|
| Rushing Defense (ypg) | 114 (66) | 153.5 (73) | Rushing Offense (ypg) | Push |
| Passing Defense (ypg) | 110.0 (7) | 204.0 (93) | Passing Offense (ypg) |
|
| Pass Efficiency Defense | 87.45 (8) | 139.21 (72) | Pass Efficiency |
|
| Total Defense (ypg) | 224.0 (10) | 357.5 (88) | Total Offense (ypg) |
|
| Scoring Defense (ppg) | 11.0 (T - 17) | 26.5 (T - 84) | Scoring Offense (ppg) |
|
| Punt Return Defense (ypr) | 4.0 (T - 67) | 0.0 (T - 105) | Punt Return Yds (ypr) | |
| Punt Return Yds (ypr) | 6.0 (T - 72) | 1.0 (T - 46) | Punt Return Defense (ypr) |
 |
| Net Punting Yds (ypp) | 40.5 (T - 55) | 42.29 (34) | Net Punting Yds (ypp) | Push |
| Kickoff Return Yds (ypr) | 22.5 (T - 41) | 17.0 (T - 47) | Kickoff Return Defense (ypr) | Push |
| Kickoff Return Defense (ypr) | 13.0 (T - 18) | 17.83 (T - 85) | Kickoff Return Yds (ypr) |
|
| Turnover Margin | +1.0 (T - 20) | +0.0 (T - 62) | Turnover Margin | |
| Passes Had Intercepted (total) | 0 (T - 1) | 2 (T - 42) | Passes Intercepted (total) | |
| Passes Intercepted (total) | 1 (T - 72) | 3 (T - 98) | Passes Had Intercepted (total) | |
| Penalty Yds/Game | 30.0 (T - 12) | 79.0 (125) | Penalty Yds/Game |
|
| Sacks (spg) | 3.5 (T - 16) | 4.0 (T - 125) | Sacks Allowed (spg) |
|
| Sacks Allowed (spg) | 0.5 (T - 8) | 1.5 (T - 84) | Sacks (spg) |
|
| Tackles for Loss (tpg) | 6.5 (T - 47) | 6.5 (T - 95) | Tackles for Loss Allowed (tpg) | |
| Tackles for Loss Allowed (tpg) | 3.5 (T - 11) | 5.0 (T - 83) | Tackles for Loss (tpg) |
|
| Redzone Offense (% season) | 92.3% (T - 35) | 100% (T - 93) | Redzone Defense (% season) | |
| Redzone Defense (% season) | 100% (T - 93) | 100% (T - 1) | Redzone Offense (% season) |
|
| Redzone TD % (season) | 84.62% | 70.00% | Redzone TD % Defense (season) |
|
| Redzone TD % Defense (season) | 100.0% | 83.33% | Redzone TD % (season) | Push |
| 3rd Down Conv. % (season) | 47.8% (T - 43) | 57.1% (128) | 3rd Down Defense % (season) |
|
| 3rd Down Defense % (season) | 24.0% (10) | 33.3% (T - 104) | 3rd Down Conv. % (season) |
|
| 4th Down Conv. % (season) | 100.0% (T - 1) | 66.67% (T - 97) | 4th Down Defense % (season) |
|
| 4th Down Defense % (season) | 50.0% (T - 59) | 60.0% (T - 53) | 4th Down Conv. % (season) | Push |
| 1st Downs (season) | 61 (T - 9) | 54 (T - 123) | 1st Downs Allowed (season) |
|
| 1st Downs Allowed (season) | 22 (T - 5) | 40 (T - 86) | 1st Downs (season) |
|
| Time of Possession (mpg) | 35 (5) | 25 (121) | Time of Possession (mpg) |
|
| Strength of Schedule | 86 | 15 | Strength of Schedule |
|
Difference >25 in National Rank =
Difference >50 in National Rank =
Difference >75 in National Rank =
Difference >100 in National Rank =
Note:
All of the above rankings are taken directly from the NCAA except for strength of schedule, which is taken from Power Rankings.
The Redzone TD% and Redzone TD% Defense are calculated by me and not ranked by the NCAA. Determining who has the advantage in these categories is strictly my arbitrary judgment.
Quick thoughts:
Listen, I always say that this early in the season, this post means very little - and this is even coming up a week sooner than normal, since the Big Ten season is starting a week earlier. But still - it’s hard to not feel confident when looking at these numbers.
The lede in the header mentions the last time a #7-ranked PSU team played Illinois and it’s a little hard to not have some PTSD - but the last time was coming off a loss in Iowa that was due to lack of depth at the quarterback position, and the starter was clearly less than 75% ok to play. This year, there’s more QB depth and the team is far more complete.
As for some of those more questionable numbers, it’s not a surprise that, after playing an FCS foe, Penn State’s strength of schedule plummeted. Special teams is the biggest area of weakness for the Nittany Lions, but Illinois has not returned a single punt - and since our first two opponents only returned one (combined), that may not be an issue. Same deal with kickoffs - we’ve returned only two (to the Illini’s 6), and their opponents have returned 6 of their kicks to ours’ 3. And that’s with PSU having scored 15 times on the year, so 14 of the 17 kickoffs were touchbacks.
And I’d be worried about those red zone numbers, except - our opponents have only been in the red zone twice in two games combined, so the 100% given up is a small sample size; Illinois’ opponents have been in the RZ ten times, which is four fewer times than their opponents have started inside the Illini twenty. We’ve been in the red zone 13 times on offense this season, in two games - the definition of efficient.
What say you all?
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